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Operator · Operator
Sam Tyagi
Thank you and good morning. During today's quarterly earnings call, we will reference the slides and press release that are available within the investor relations section of our website, pnfp.com. President and CEO Kevin Blair will begin the call. He will be followed by our Chief Financial Officer, Jamie Gregory, and they will be available to answer your questions at the end of the call. Our comments include forward-looking statements.
These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and the actual results could vary materially. We will list these factors that might cause results to differ materially in our press release and in our SEC filings, which are available on our website. We do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements because of new information, early developments, or otherwise, except as may be required by law.
During the call, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures related to the company's performance. You may see the reconciliation of these measures in the appendix to our presentation. Kevin Blair will provide an overview of the quarter.
Kevin Blair
Thank you, Sam, and good morning, everyone. Three quarters in, we are executing on the things we said mattered. For our team, that meant protecting the culture, hiring the best bankers in our markets, and removing the distractions that get between them and their clients. For our clients, it has meant more visibility, more proactive advice, and continuing to exceed what they expect from us, even as our bankers adapt to one unified model.
For all of it while preparing for a conversion that will unite our platforms seamlessly and give clients functionality and capabilities they did not have before. That is what moves a merger past the question of whether it will work and on to why it is working so well. Every quarter since close has added to the evidence. This one continues that trend. It's why we remain convinced on the significant shareholder value in this deal.
For the third quarter of 2026, we reported diluted EPS of $2.40 and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.69, excluding $56 million of pre-tax adjusted items. Year to date, adjusted EPS is up 23% over the same period last year. Let me start with growth on the balance sheet. The third quarter is one more proof point that this model is built to deliver outsized growth. Loans grew $1.7 billion linked quarter, led again by C&I. Deposits grew $2.1 billion, well ahead of what the combined firm has historically produced in the third quarter.
Together, that drove net interest income up 3% linked quarter, and we have now grown NII more than 2% in every quarter since close. Three quarters in a row is a pattern, and the pattern is the point. Fee income was a standout. Adjusted non-interest revenue grew 19% linked quarter, helped by a record production quarter at BHG and a gain in our equipment leasing business. What I want you to hear is what sits underneath these two items.
Core banking, wealth management, and capital markets are up double digits year to date on a combined basis. Different line item on the income statement, same pattern. Expenses are aligned with the strategy. The dollars are going where we said they would go, into bankers and into technology. The discipline shows up in positive operating leverage, which we delivered again this quarter and drove the 95 basis point improvement in our adjusted tangible efficiency ratio from the second quarter.
Investing for growth and improving efficiency at the same time is exactly the point of this combination. Same pattern. Credit remains a strength. Net charge-offs landed inside our 20-25 basis point range for the third straight quarter, and the non-performing assets ratio was flat at 50 basis points. The loans we are putting on the books are high quality, and we are not seeing broad-based stress anywhere in the portfolio.
Growth at this pace with credit this clean is what the Pinnacle model has consistently delivered. Again, same pattern. We also built capital again this quarter. Preliminary CET1 increased eight basis points while we funded $1.7 billion of loan growth. That is the earnings power of this franchise showing up in the capital ratios. The recurring question about a merger is talent. Do the bankers stay, and can you still recruit?
Recruiting has not slowed and it has not flatlined. It is running well ahead of what the two companies produced combined in 2025. We added 96 experienced revenue producers this quarter, 222 year to date, and October is running strong enough that we expect to clear the top end of our original 225-250 target. More than half of this year's hires came into core Synovus markets. That was the revenue synergy we underwrote in this deal, and it is showing up in the numbers today.
Net growth in revenue producers is also running ahead of our expectations because retention is holding up alongside recruiting. Producer retention, excluding merger-related synergies, is 95% year to date. That is better than our historical years, and we posted it in the middle of a merger. It says a lot about the underlying model. Synovus bankers see what it offers and want to be part of it, and the Pinnacle bankers see that nothing about how they serve clients has changed.
Clients keep the bankers they choose, which is why they tell us they value us most. The clients are staying with them. Coalition Greenwich fielded its latest survey six months after closing, which is about the hardest moment you could pick to ask clients how they feel about their bank. They ranked Pinnacle number one in our net promoter score amongst the larger banks in our footprint against an expanded peer set, and our score rose two points from the first quarter.
The same study shows Pinnacle leading in clients expecting to do more business with us over the next six - 12 months at a level much higher than our peers. The attrition data tells the same story. Non-CD deposit account closures are down in 2026 versus 2025 in both dollars and number of accounts. When a bank of our size goes through a combination, you expect some clients to head for the door. Fewer are leaving this year than last.
Market share closes the loop. The latest FDIC data shows Pinnacle growing deposits at almost three times the pace of our MSA footprint on a combined basis. We moved up in rank in five states and 17 MSAs. We held number one in Nashville, Tennessee and Columbus, Georgia, and grew share in Atlanta by almost 50 basis points to strengthen our number four ranking. Growth, talent, clients. Same pattern across all three. That is the point.
Lastly, integration remains on schedule for operational and brand conversion in March 2027. This quarter, we completed systems migrations across client care, mortgage origination, our health savings account business, and select capital market capabilities, and we continued expanding the Pinnacle brand through card reissuance and new signage. The work ahead is end-to-end testing and preparing our front line to deliver a seamless day one.
One thing that is different about this conversion is how we are testing it. AI now supports the full testing life cycle. It reviews requirements, drafts test cases, builds the automation, and repairs the test when screens change, with a person approving every step. Across the 838 test scripts completed to date, we estimate AI handled close to 80% of the scripting and cut the time required by roughly 70%. The tools are not perfect, and it still takes our people to code, build, validate, and test, and deploy them into the production environment, but it's getting faster as we go.
We said from the start that we would protect the client experience through conversion, with a timeline built for great execution rather than pulling cost synergies forward. Nothing we have seen changes that. We are confident in March, and we will get there the same way we have gotten here, quarter after quarter, same pattern. With that, I'll turn it over to Jamie for more detail on the quarter. Jamie?
Jamie Gregory
Thank you, Kevin. Adjusted diluted EPS increased 8% versus the prior quarter and 19% versus the third quarter of 2025. Profitability is tracking right in line with merger assumptions, with third quarter adjusted return on average tangible common equity of 18.3%. Earning assets grew 3%, or 12% annualized, reflecting growth in both loans and investment securities. Period end loans increased $1.7 billion, or 8% annualized from the second quarter.
C&I again accounted for the majority of growth with contributions across our geographic markets and specialty lending platforms. On a year to date combined basis, period end loans increased 8%, or 11% annualized, excluding the purchase accounting loan mark. Total period end deposits grew $2.1 billion on a linked quarter basis, with broad-based growth across geographies and specialty banking units. Excluding third quarter headwinds from public funds, core deposits were up approximately 3% quarter on quarter, or 13% annualized.
Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect core growth along with positive seasonals in both public funds and other commercial deposits to help us deliver a strong end to 2026. Net interest income was $986 million, an increase of $30 million from the second quarter, as earning asset growth more than offset margin contraction. The NIM was 3.4%, down four basis points from the second quarter. Earning asset yields were up modestly across most categories, to some degree supported by the FOMC's rate hike late in the quarter.
Loan yields were up one basis point to 6.12%, and experienced some marginal headwinds in the quarter, notably from lower loan fees and PAA. Both were at the lower end of the expected quarterly range we modeled for the merger. Our total deposit cost increased four basis points, our cost of interest-bearing deposits increased five basis points, and our aggregate effective cost of funds also increased five basis points.
Rate movements to date should benefit us modestly from here, and we expect the margin to slightly expand in the fourth quarter. Adjusted non-interest revenue increased $53 million from the second quarter. Performance was aided by a $23 million gain in our leasing business and record production at BHG, which lifted our investment income to $48 million from $24 million in the second quarter. We expect BHG's production momentum to carry into the fourth quarter.
These wins should not overshadow what has been a double-digit year to date organic growth in our core fee line items and strong momentum from merger-related revenue synergies. Our adjusted tangible efficiency ratio improved to 48.9%, reflecting both revenue growth and continued expense discipline. We incurred $56 million of non-recurring merger expenses during the quarter, bringing the year to date total to $382 million and tracking right in line with the previous full year guidance of $400 million-$450 million.
Adjusted non-interest expense was $690 million, up 4%. The change was driven by a higher incentive accrual, which is a direct result of our strong performance year to date. Headcount was up modestly from the second quarter, reflecting growth in both our geographic markets and specialty units, such as treasury management. Credit metrics were stable to improving. Net charge-offs were $50 million, or 23 basis points for the quarter, consistent with expectations and within our full-year range.
The non-performing asset ratio was flat at 0.5%. Consistent with prior quarters, the ACL ratio ended the third quarter at 1.19%. This includes the impact of current macroeconomic forecasts on our models, which had an increased weighting to slower growth scenarios. Higher qualitative reserves and reserve build associated with loan growth also contributed, offset by a reduction in reserves for individually analyzed loans.
During the quarter, we completed the sale of our Qualpay investment. The transaction resulted in a pre-tax gain of $4 million and will have an immaterial impact on go-forward earnings. Capital ratios continued to build in the third quarter, with core earnings generating excess capital beyond that needed to meet our 12% annualized earning asset growth for the quarter. Our preliminary common equity Tier 1 ratio ended the quarter at 10.01%, up eight basis points from the second quarter.
Client-driven growth remains the first use of capital we generate, and we continue to build steadily towards our 10.25% CET1 target. I'll now hand it back to Kevin for our 2026 financial outlook.
Kevin Blair
Thank you, Jamie. With one quarter left in 2026, our guidance ranges remain unchanged, and our confidence in meeting them remains high. We continue to expect full-year loan growth at the top end of our 9% to 11% range. Deposit growth is tracking toward mid-range of 8% to 10%, or roughly $9 billion for the year, with the fourth quarter seasonal inflows still ahead of us. We expect full-year NIM in the 3.44% to 3.46% range, with the fourth quarter in the low to mid 3.40s% range that Jamie described earlier.
Combining that NII growth with the strength that we are seeing in core client fees and at BHG, we expect full-year adjusted revenue just over the midpoint of our stated range. Within that, we now expect BHG income of $150 million to $160 million for the year, above the $110 million to $120 million range we provided in July. Adjusted non-interest expenses should land just above the middle of our $2.675 billion and $2.775 billion guidance, with the fourth quarter reflecting continued investment in revenue producer hiring and incentive compensation reflecting our strong forecasted revenue and EPS growth.
We continue to expect the adjusted effective tax rate in the middle of the 20% to 21% range and charge-offs within the 20-25 basis point range. Taken together, this keeps us on track to ahead of the EPS accretion path we laid out last summer. We will provide our 2027 outlook in December. As we build that plan, the starting point is strong. A full year of synergies building, a team well prepared for a successful conversion in March, and a 2026 recruiting class moving towards full productivity.
As I close, I want to come back to a simple idea. The things that compound are the things you do consistently. We said we would grow, recruit the best bankers, protect credit, price with discipline, and never trade our culture for speed. Nine months in, the scoreboard is lighting up. Adjusted EPS is up 23% year to date. Our net promoter scores are holding at levels that tell us our clients feel the difference, and we are taking deposit market share in the places we compete, one relationship at a time.
Every quarter we put behind us does two things: It adds to the pattern, and it retires risk. The things that go wrong in a merger this size, losing bankers, losing clients, losing credit discipline, have each had three quarters to show up. None of them has. The work is not finished, but the risk that was an open question in January is a smaller question today, and it gets smaller with every quarter that looks like this one.
This is a foundation, and the quarters that matter most are the ones still ahead of us. We are building towards them with the same intensity that got us here, quarter after quarter, same pattern. With that, operator, let's transition to the Q&A portion of today's call.
Questions & answers
Operator · Operator
Casey Haire
Q1
Great, thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Kevin Blair
Morning.
Casey Haire
Q1
I wanted to focus on slide 21, the NIM waterfall chart, specifically the Category IV liquidity build. It lays out $3 billion over the next three years of debt issuance. Does that three-five basis points? Is that the way to think about it over the next couple of years? The other one, the fixed rate asset repricing, how much longer is that a tailwind, and is that also a two-four basis point tailwind each year? Thank you.
Jamie Gregory
Yeah, Casey. Good morning. On the HQLA, our plans remain the same right now. We obviously pay very close attention to the regulatory environment and everything that's happening there, but we don't have a change in our plan on liquidity. Those remain accurate. If you think about debt issuances as we go through the year, every $1 billion of debt issuance is a couple basis point impact to cost of funds. We will continue to grow the securities portfolio.
If you think about the growth in the securities portfolio, that growth comes at a spread of about 1% between the securities you put on the book and the wholesale funding that you use to fund them. Those will be the headwinds, and so yes, that will continue. The fixed rate asset repricing will continue through 2027 and into 2028. What I would say about that is, with the increase in rates, that impact does get bigger.
We talk a lot about the PAA of the loan portfolio from the marks on January one. That only increases the impact of fixed rate asset repricing going forward because we marked the book, the loan book, at 6.3%. If you look at month of September loan production, the yield on that was 6.6%. Basically, what you're seeing there is that asset sensitivity, and you should see that play out as you go through the next couple of years as you get the benefit, specifically of the commercial loans that we marked in January, maturing and being replaced with loans at higher yield, assuming the current rate environment sticks.
Casey Haire
Q1
Okay, great. All right, then just switching to BHG, dramatic improvement in performance there. I know the originations were up, but is there something on the expense side that has also helped? Just trying to get some color on what is a pretty dramatic step up in profitability contribution from that business.
Jamie Gregory
Look, that business continues to perform, and it is not an expense story. The production was up. It was a record quarter for production for BHG. You can see the diversity in their funding mix. Their partnerships remain strong. It is really a revenue story and a mix story that led to the record quarter here in the third quarter.
Casey Haire
Q1
Great. Thank you.
Jamie Gregory
Thanks, Casey.
Operator · Operator
John Pancari
Q2
Morning.
Jamie Gregory
Morning, John.
Kevin Blair
Morning, John.
John Pancari
Q2
Just on the margin, I know you nudged the top end of the 2026 margin guide down by a bit. What are you seeing in terms of some of the underlying components of the margin? Was that a bit of the loan yield pressure that you flagged? And then also maybe on the outlook, Todd, the deposit and loan pricing. I guess on the deposit side, what are you seeing in terms of deposit pricing competition, and what is your expected trend in deposit costs and beta as you are looking out? And I guess similar on the loan pricing side, just given your comments and your prepared remarks. Thanks.
Jamie Gregory
Hey, John. As we look to the fourth quarter, there are a few moving parts, and we mentioned this in the prepared remarks. In the third quarter, we had a negative impact versus expectations of PAA being a little lower than we expected, as well as loan fees being a little lower than expected. We expect both of those to reverse in the fourth quarter, which is a little bit of a tailwind to the margin. We still have a little bit of benefit to the fourth quarter margin from the Fed hike in September, a little bit of a benefit from fixed rate asset repricing, and there should be a little bit of a benefit from core deposit growth outpacing loan growth.
The offset or partial offset to that would be that continued HQLA build in the fourth quarter will be a little bit of a headwind. Our base case for the fourth quarter is that the margin slightly expands for the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. When you look beyond that, when you look out into 2027, and we will give a more thorough update on this in December, when you look into 2027, we do see the benefit of fixed rate asset repricing.
We do expect further rate increases, which should be a little bit of a tailwind in 2027. Then the story will remain the same, that there will be a little bit of a headwind because of HQLA growth and the tighter margin on some of that incremental growth that is wholesale funded. So that is our outlook for the near term and then for 2027. Probably the net effect of that will be slight pressure on the margin as you look through 2027.
Kevin Blair
John, let me hit the part of it that you ask about the frontline and competition. I am extremely pleased with the pricing discipline that our bankers are exhibiting. When you look at the new loan production this third quarter, it came in about 6.5%. New deposits came in right around 2.7%, so call it 375 to 380 basis points spread on that new business. That is about 10 basis point wider than what we saw last quarter.
When you look at loan spreads relative to the index, those were also up 14 basis points. So I do not think it is a competition or pricing story, as Jamie talked about all the puts and takes on the margin. I have been somewhat vocal on this. I do not know that competition is the news. I think it is like the weather. It is here today, it is here tomorrow. It is not what the weather is, it is how you compete in that weather.
There are 4,300 banks competing every day for the same clients that we have. How we compete is not on price. We compete and win market share and grow balances based on trust, based on bankers, and not on the last basis point. So it does not make us immune to the pricing pressure, but it means we are not chasing that marginal dollar just based on rate.
John Pancari
Q2
Makes sense. Thanks, Kevin. On the loan growth front, it sounds like your confidence is still in the high end of the 9%-11% for this year. You cited that growth is certainly heavily tied to your hiring and your recruiting efforts, and you sound confident on the hiring front. I guess, what does that mean for 2027 as you take a look at the pace of growth? I know you are not guiding it until December, but any way to characterize how we can think about this follow-through of this 9%-11% range as you look at 2027 and the hiring?
Kevin Blair
Yeah. Without giving you a number, John, I think as I said multiple times on the prepared remarks, it is a pattern. I think you would continue to see that momentum. It goes back to this quarter and where we saw growth. It was so broad-based. Every geography and every specialty unit grew this quarter. Not a single one declined. It shows you the diversity of our ability to grow across the board. It was led by C&I, and our production was up about 11% year-over-year.
When you look at where we grew this quarter, specialty finance, specialty CRE, financial institutions all were up about $200 million-$300 million. On the geography side, to your point, where we saw the greatest growth is where we are seeing the fastest hiring, the Carolinas, Florida and Georgia. When you look at the broad-based growth, you look at where it is coming from, you look at the 222 hires we have made to date, I would just point to there is nothing within the current pipelines within our production and with what we expect to happen next year, that you should see a change in our ability to grow assets.
John Pancari
Q2
Great. Thanks, Kevin.
Operator · Operator
Ebrahim Poonawala
Q3
Hey, good morning.
Jamie Gregory
Good morning. Morning, Ebrahim.
Ebrahim Poonawala
Q3
I guess, sorry for following up again on the margin. Just when we think about, Jamie, what you said, some expansion and then we have the HQLA and the wholesale funded part of the loan growth to think about as headwinds. I think there was a sense coming out of last quarter that the margin about 340 is sort of directionally headed towards something in the 330 or sub 330 range. Just hearing you this morning, it feels like that may be overdoing that a little bit.
So just either respond to when we think about the incremental growth, what is the incremental margin? Is that in the 350s net-net when you add the wholesale and the core deposit funded growth? How should we think about that incremental blended growth and what the margin?
Jamie Gregory
No, Ebrahim, our story remains the same on the margin on incremental growth. When we think about that, we think about the margin in that 330 context on the incremental growth. So just to use round numbers for 2027, if you said we are going to grow 10%, then that would be, if you look at it as like, what are we, 10 basis points below, that would be a one-basis-point headwind to the margin in 2027, just based on the growth.
So when I say a slight headwind, that is what I am referring to. So you would have one basis point headwind on the growth, but then you would add on top of that the impact of the debt issuances and growing the securities portfolio and cash. So when I speak to pressure on the margin, that is the general context. It is not a scenario where we expect to go down to 330 immediately in 2027. It is more that incremental growth comes in a little bit tighter than where we are today, so there will be slight pressure on the margin because of it.
Ebrahim Poonawala
Q3
That is helpful. I guess maybe, Kevin, back to your comments of strong results every quarter that goes by, you are sort of at least disproving the risk of this deal not playing itself out. I think the one concern I hear from investors is, if you think about some of the legacy Pinnacle leadership leaving the company maybe towards the end of next year and the risk of some of the more tenured bankers leaving, you could see this stumble a little bit, maybe 12-18 months from now.
I am assuming you do not agree with that characterization, but just give us a framework of why that is not the right way to think about it. That would be helpful. Thanks.
Kevin Blair
Well, look, I think that's somebody trying to fearmonger, Ebrahim, quite frankly. Rob McCabe, who's our Chief Banking Officer, has agreed to stay on for another year as Chief Banking Officer. We announced that earlier this year. He's also going to stay on as an advisor to me for two years post that arrangement. The people that are running the Pinnacle model aren't going anywhere. Yes, there'll be some retirements, there'll be people that are leaving the firm, and they've earned that because they've been here a while.
As you saw this morning, we've added 222 revenue producers, and I would point to that as the best case because people are going to come and go. We have 95% retention of our revenue producers, which is below what we've done in previous years. We brought in those 222 bankers. Let me give you a little context on that. They've come from over 100 financial institutions. When you look at the top 10 sources of those 22, those 10 banks comprise about 45% of our hires.
When I look at those 10 banks, I'm not going to name them, those are some of the largest banks in our footprint, and they carry significant share. So those bankers, their best bankers, are choosing to join us, and they're bringing their clients with them. So I would submit to you that going forward, if people retire, that's okay. Our leadership that may retire have great succession plans in place, and there's nothing that's going to change what drives growth in this model.
I think if there's one thing, you can see the consistency in growth at Pinnacle for 26 years as people have come and gone. So we have built a foundation, and we are running a model that's producing growth this year and will produce growth next year. The people that talk about that, whether it's investors or competitors, they're just trying to look for an angle because they said they would take talent from us to this point. They haven't. Now they're trying to look for another inflection point to be able to put your attention to that.
Ebrahim Poonawala
Q3
That's helpful, Kevin. Thank you. I'm off.
Operator · Operator
Jared Shaw
Q4
Thanks. Good morning.
Kevin Blair
Good morning.
Jared Shaw
Q4
Hey, maybe just shifting over to the fee income side, you talked about having some success with synergies so far. How should we think about the longer-term ability for fees to grow after the conversion? Do you think that some of those synergy opportunities will accelerate after that, or are you starting to see that full benefit now?
Kevin Blair
Jared, you are right, and Jamie Gregory said this in the prepared remarks. When you look at core banking fees, they are up about 10% year-over-year. You look at wealth, it is up 11% to date, driven by both brokerage and trust. Capital markets are up 23%, and there are some big numbers in there. Lead arranger fees are up 50%, derivatives up 26%. Big numbers. The way I think about fee income over a longer period of time is very similar to how I think about loan growth.
We focus on that double-digit loan growth because as these bankers join, they are bringing their loans with them, they are bringing deposits with them, but those all create new fee opportunities, whether that is operating accounts through our treasury area, whether that is new wealth relationships. I would like to think that we could continue to grow those core fee income lines by high single-digit, double-digit numbers. As it relates to revenue synergies, we are at about $20 million year to date.
I think that is largely on track with where we thought we would be. Most of those synergies have come out of capital markets, whether it is an expanded syndication platform, whether it is derivatives, whether it is our FX and our government-guaranteed lending area. Still scratching the surface at $20 million. As you know, we have committed to over $100 million in revenue synergies. To your point, that will ramp up when we get to the other side of conversion in March of next year because the full company will be on one platform as it relates to treasury, and ultimately, there will be greater synergies in some of the other line items that we have talked about.
Jared Shaw
Q4
Okay, thanks a lot. On BHG, obviously a strong quarter of origination. As we look at a potentially higher or likely higher rate environment, what is the expectation around the credit impact from that at BHG? I know that there has been a, if you look back over the past few years, sort of a refocus on the underwriting. Should we expect that charge-offs stay in the similar range going forward?
Kevin Blair
Well, first off, you can see the trend, where charge-offs and delinquencies are declining over a long period of time. The performance there has been strong. We look at origination standards, looking at credit scores, looking at the quality of the borrowers, and they remain strong as well. BHG made a strategic pivot a few quarters ago where they realized that if they were not as aggressive on price, they ran the risk of being adversely selected on credit, so they adjusted their pricing accordingly because they chose a little bit of a tighter spread so that they wouldn't be sacrificing at all on credit.
We firmly support that strategy, and you're seeing that play through. So, it is a consumer product, so I don't think they're immune from anything, from the world if the world changes out there for the consumer. But the quality of their borrowers is strong, their performance has been strong, and we're not seeing anything that would change that.
Jared Shaw
Q4
Thanks.
Operator · Operator
John McDonald
Q5
Thank you. Good morning. Maybe just one more on BHG, guys. Can you talk a little bit more about what's driving that increased production? Is it good macro or some increased marketing or awareness of the product? Then longer term, how you're thinking about your relationship with the company. We saw another large Southeast bank announce some consumer exits this quarter. Just a reminder of how you look at your optionality around this business would be helpful.
Kevin Blair
Yeah, John. As I mentioned just a minute ago, their pricing is driving some of the volume. They have a pipeline through various third parties that help source deals for them. They are very strategic and thoughtful in how they source deals, and that is what has driven their success, is their model. It has been very strong. You can see that in the sustained high level of originations. With regards to their strategic optionality, quarters like this only make them more attractive to everybody.
It makes them more attractive to us. It makes them more attractive to potential buyers. It is a positive all around. For us, the partnership is very strong. We are very supportive of the leadership team over there, and we just want to see this continue, and for them to continue making the right decisions. By that, it is decisions that sometimes reduce near-term earnings, like the decision to change how they distribute their loans that they did here in 2027.
It is also when they make a decision to accept a tighter spread in order to improve the credit performance. All of these things are making the right long-term decision, even if it may reduce upfront earnings. I think that that just makes it a more attractive franchise for everybody. From our perspective, look, we enjoy being owners of BHG, and we will be supportive of whatever path they choose. They own the majority of the company, and so we ride alongside with them.
John McDonald
Q5
Thanks. Just to follow up, maybe a modeling question on reserve build. The street was underestimating the provision a bit this quarter, just on the reserve build piece. Credit obviously looks good. Can you speak to how we should think about your current reserve ratios and how you will think about adding for growth going forward?
Jamie Gregory
Yeah. If you look at the reserve build this quarter, it is all the economy and it is all because of growth. The loan portfolio continues to deliver. We continue to have strong performance on the quality of our loan book. So what you should expect to see from us from here is, assuming the economic outlook doesn't change, you should expect us to be funding at a similar rate for growth. But I would point out that 45% of our weighting of scenarios is to below consensus scenarios.
We remain optimistic that the outlook improves and we get to a spot where consensus is consensus, where that is the baseline, and you have an equal weight of scenarios above and below the consensus. But we are not there today, and so hopefully that day comes. When that day comes, the allowance to loan ratio should decline.
John McDonald
Q5
Got it. Thank you.
Operator · Operator
Kevin Blair
Well, look, this quarter, most of our CRE was our specialty CRE area. I would submit to you that we're coming off very low levels of production, to your point, based on where interest rates are. I would assume in this environment, with rates being a little higher, that you're going to still see some pressure on production. We've had some construction loans on multifamily that are starting to fund up, and those were obviously originated in the past.
I don't see the current environment as being overly constructive to see a ramp-up in CRE production. I actually think that with some real estate developers this past week, and they're finding it harder and harder to find deals that pencil. I think there are a lot of people that are sitting around, even on the multifamily side, watching the absorption of the new deliveries. I think it's going to be a tough market for growth, and we're not expecting a lot of growth in CRE.
We're expecting more of it to continue to come in on the C&I front. Bernard von-Gizycki Analyst Okay, just as a follow-up. I think on slide 14, you show the normalized deposit growth, which shows trends stronger than prior years. Can you talk to the ability to fund the strong loan growth with core deposits and just expectations on deposit beta for maybe the first hike and through the cycle?
Jamie Gregory
Yeah. As you look at the third quarter, we grew core deposits, excluding public funds, $2.6 billion, as it says on the slide. That is strong growth, and that is basically what we are expecting in the fourth quarter before you take into account the seasonal tailwind of the fourth quarter. That's what leads to our deposit guide. That's what leads to getting to the midpoint of that range, is if you repeat what we did in the third quarter on core deposits, then you get a seasonal benefit, and the seasonal benefit comes from both public funds as well as commercial clients that typically fund up at the end of the year.
Then there'll be some broker deposit growth on top of that, and that's what solves for the midpoint of the guide. When you think about the deposit beta of the first hike, the way I contextualize it is that right before the Fed hiked in September, our total deposit cost was 217. You can kind of get close to that with our monthly numbers. We are expecting to end the year in the 230 area. You think about that as an approximate 13 basis point increase in the fourth quarter due to the Fed, not assuming any further rate hikes.
That's what gets you to that kind of 50 area or low 50s beta on the first hike. That's what we're expecting for the first hike, and that's what we're expecting for further hikes. In that, there still is a little bit of asset sensitivity to the front end. Bernard von-Gizycki Analyst Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Operator · Operator
Ryan Kenny
Q7
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First on buybacks on pause through 2026. You are delivering strong capital generation. OCI seems like less of an issue for you guys. Just wondering how the board is thinking about the timing of when to restart the buyback authorization, and is there a scenario where that happens in 2027?
Jamie Gregory
Our priority right now is getting to that 10.25% CET1. We accreted eight basis points of capital in the third quarter. We think we will continue accreting capital towards our target here over the next couple of quarters. That is our priority. When we get to our target area, then we will determine what is the right strategy. Our number one priority remains client growth. That is where capital and liquidity is deployed first and foremost. If we do believe we have excess capital, that is when share repurchase will come into play.
Ryan Kenny
Q7
Got it. Then another one on the HQLA and debt build. Just want to clarify, you mentioned that you are looking at regulatory changes. If the Fed raises the thresholds for Category IV, understand that you are still growing and you are progressing towards whatever the new threshold will be, but could a change maybe give you more time on the liquidity build? Any thoughts on what the current pace and level of build is and maybe how that might change?
Jamie Gregory
Yeah, it could change the timing. Right now, our plan is for the liquidity build to remain as we described. As you will recall, in May, we issued $750 million of debt, which put us ahead of schedule. Now we are here in the fourth quarter, considering further debt issuances in line with our $1 billion of debt issuance per year for the first three years of this deal. The regulatory changes could delay, but it has not changed our near-term plans.
We just continue to watch it, continue to build cash and securities to assets. That is our priority here in the near term. You are right to think that over the longer term, it could change the strategy, but I do not see it changing in the near term.
Ryan Kenny
Q7
Thank you.
Operator · Operator
Michael Rose
Q8
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Good to see the hiring continue. As we move forward, are there any areas or geographies that you are maybe a little bit more focused on as you look to meet or exceed the numbers here in the next couple of quarters? Thanks.
Kevin Blair
Michael, I would submit to you that we do not think about it that way, where we go into a geography and say, "Let us fill it." We actually start with the leaders, and we try to find leaders that want to join the firm and bring teams of individuals with them. We have a lot of opportunity to add density in the 60 MSAs that we serve today. We are constantly recruiting, as we have talked about in the past. We are trying to bring over the best talent.
We have the ability and the capacity to bring them in most of those markets. Even in Nashville, Tennessee, where we control number one market share, we are still adding revenue producers. I would not say that we are targeting any area. We are targeting the best talent across our entire footprint. The pipelines, as we talked about, are very robust. That is why we said on the prepared remarks, we would expect to come in above the 250 that we had originally targeted for this year.
Michael Rose
Q8
Helpful color. Thanks, Kevin. Maybe just one follow-up. I know it's a little ticky-tacky, but looks like criticize ticked a little higher. Just as we think about the prospect of higher rates, any areas that you're maybe a little bit more critical on or maybe from a loan growth perspective, maybe a little bit more cautious on? Thanks.
Kevin Blair
Michael, look on the rate scenario, obviously higher rates could drive valuation declines on the CRE side, so we'll watch that. But the question about what keeps me up at night on credit, I would say not a lot. We've tried really hard to look into that. Charge-offs were 23 basis points, as we said. Net, the NPAs were flat for the quarter. As Jamie talked about, the reserve really ticked up mainly because of a higher weighting towards the slow growth scenario.
The things we look for are the same areas where the industry has seen some degradation, whether that's NDFI, leverage loans, franchise lending, and we've dug in there. We've been through those books. We continue to use things like our cash flow monitoring tool proactively, and we feel good about all of them, and the portfolio as a whole. I would tell you that we're always trying to assess where the next issue is. We're not seeing it in our book.
From a production standpoint, we're not altering any of our credit policies to change where we're doing business. We look at what's coming on the books, and it is very high credit quality business. We'll keep monitoring it and keep answering the questions. But I think on this question, it would be hard for me to not answer it without talking a little bit about our model. As you know, we hire our bankers differently.
You asked that question. That means client selection is different. When we bring these bankers over, they're generally bringing clients that they've done business with for many years through cycles. Our model holds up well relative to our competition, and I think it'll continue to do that in this environment or if rates were to go higher or if we were to see some sort of credit downturn.
Michael Rose
Q8
Appreciate the perspective, Kevin. I will step back. Thanks.
Operator · Operator
Timur Braziler
Q9
Hi, good morning. Maybe starting on the balance sheet. I guess I was a little bit surprised by the level of cash and FHLBs that remained on the balance sheet in Q3, given maybe some of the commentary following the second quarter. Just help us frame thoughts around wholesale funding into Q4 into a period that is going to be seasonally better on the deposit front.
Jamie Gregory
Yeah, Timur, when you look at cash, it has run a little higher than what we said in July, averaging around $5 billion. That is something that we actually expect to continue here in the fourth quarter. You should expect to see that continue. I would expect to see that level, not necessarily what you have seen at some of the quarter ends, but around $5 billion in cash for the rest of this year. When you think about wholesale funding, I would circle back to what we said earlier about deposit growth in the fourth quarter.
Our objective is achieving the midpoint of our guide on deposits, and doing that would lead to deposit growth outpacing loan growth. That gives us flexibility on the marginal funding when you have that funding coming in through core deposit growth plus some brokered growth. That is our general expectation. We do expect to have some broker growth this quarter, and we will see how it all plays out from there.
Timur Braziler
Q9
Great. Then one more on BHG, if I can. So the mix in the revenue base, I think, is impressive here given that loan sales and transactions through the bank network were actually down quite a bit. I am just wondering, with more of the revenue coming from, I guess, the on-balance sheet loans, the sustainability of this run rate and the volatility going forward, maybe talk to both of those components.
Jamie Gregory
Yeah. We are expecting this investment income to continue into the fourth quarter at a similar level. We believe that their production and their distribution in the fourth quarter will be similar to what you saw in the third quarter. So we expect that profitability to remain. I do not have really official outlook for 2027 at this point, but we do expect to see it continue into the fourth quarter.
Timur Braziler
Q9
Thank you.
Operator · Operator
Chris McGratty
Q10
Great. Good morning. Thank you. How important on a capital discussion is the tangible common equity ratio for you all, given the movement rates and obviously what you are doing with the debt issuance?
Jamie Gregory
We pay attention to it because other people pay attention to it, but it is not a key priority for us. What I would point to is the CET1 ratio, including AOCI, as a more important metric for us as we prepare for the B3 Fed proposal to go through. We spend a lot more time looking at that, and we think that is a lot more relevant and more impactful ratio. We manage based on that ratio more than TCE.
Chris McGratty
Q10
Okay, great. On the credit, the 20-25 basis points for the year, I hear you on the reserve and the conservative waiting. If we think and step back on just the two companies that have come together, how should we over a normal, I guess normal is a tough challenge, but normalized charge-offs for the combined company is the question. Thank you.
Kevin Blair
I don't know what normal is, Chris, but I'd say this 20-25 is a good level for us for the foreseeable future. It feels like we're in a benign credit environment. Obviously, getting to a normalized level would mean that you'd go through some cycle. We haven't been in a recession in quite some time, so I don't want to proffer a guess on what that would be, but I think this 20-25 is a range that you could see us operating in for the foreseeable future.
Chris McGratty
Q10
All right, great. Thanks, guys.
Operator · Operator
Anthony Elian
Q11
Thank you. On capital, Jamie, could you put a finer point on when you expect to achieve the CET1 target of 10.25%? If I look, your CET1 has increased about 10 basis points in each of the past two quarters. Are you still expecting really strong loan growth going forward?
Jamie Gregory
Look, I think the third quarter and the second quarter capital accretion are good numbers to use when looking forward. If it's eight basis points this quarter or 10 before that, I think that makes a lot of sense. You could look at that and run it forward and project getting to a 10.25% in a few quarters. I think that's very reasonable.
Anthony Elian
Q11
Thank you. Then on the hires, so you brought on 96 revenue producers in Q3. October's running strong, and you upped the range you expect this year to 250+. But you left the 2027 range unchanged at 250-275. I'm curious why that range for next year is left unchanged. I mean, you could just talk about what you're seeing in the hiring pipeline as we enter 2027. Thank you.
Kevin Blair
I think that, Tony, is more about we're just not providing 2027 updates at this point, and you'll get an updated number, as Jamie Gregory said, in December for both the financials as well as the hiring plan. But don't read into that we think the pipelines are drying up so that we wouldn't expect to see this momentum continue.
Anthony Elian
Q11
Thank you.
Operator · Operator
Christopher Marinac
Q12
Thanks. Good morning. I want to go back to the deposit growth and kind of cost of deposits. I am curious, Jamie or Kevin, how often are you seeing exception requests on deposits, or is the growth and the pricing more a function of just the sheer movement from new producers?
Kevin Blair
A couple things there, Chris. What is interesting, I was going back and looking at the people that have joined the firm in the last year and taking that segment of new commercial FAs and looking at what they are bringing to the firm. We get the question all the time about, are those people paying for themselves? The competition is great. Yeah, we have seen a little bit of a tick up in just the cost of bringing on new talent.
What was interesting is when I looked at that cohort, we have actually had those bankers in the first year bring in more deposits than they brought in loans. Which shows me that we are getting a good cross-section of bankers that are not just focusing on generating loans, but they are bringing over deposits. I give you that because that is the story behind our deposit growth. We are seeing growth across the geographies.
We are seeing growth across all of our specialty areas. We do have some specialty deposit areas. If I look at just this past quarter, new deposits came on production rate at 270 basis points. That is actually five basis points below where it was a year ago, and fairly flat with where we have been this year. So we are not having to go out, as I said earlier, and compete on every basis point for price. We do have to be market-based.
To your point on exceptions, a lot of our deposits on the commercial side are indexed, so we do not have to provide exceptions. Those are actually adjusting with the underlying index. We will do exceptions when we have to. The exceptions are based on the full relationship value. But what we are not doing is overly relying on a bunch of promotional rates in order to generate hot money deposits. We are trying to focus on bringing over those core relationships and pricing them appropriately so that rate never becomes an issue.
Christopher Marinac
Q12
Great, Kevin. Thank you for that. Jamie, just a quick one on the PAA in the quarter. Is there any reason that was slow? Was it just timing based? I know you said it was going to catch up Q4.
Jamie Gregory
In the third quarter, we did have a fairly unique situation where we had one loan pay off that was priced at a premium. So that was a $2 million headwind to PAA in the third quarter, which is fairly impactful to the quarter. Outside of that, it was just simply slower prepayments.
Christopher Marinac
Q12
Got it. Great. Thanks again for taking all of our questions today.
Jamie Gregory
Thanks, Chris.
Operator · Operator
Ed Najarian
Q13
Good morning, guys. Just another quick question on the new hires. It looks like you will be, I do not know, maybe even close to 300 this year. Is there a way to think about, do those new hires in 2026, are you confident that they are profitable by 2027? Or is there a way to think about the new hires from last year, how profitable they are this year? I am trying to get a sense of if you can give us any kind of a sense of the pipeline of profitability that is sort of not in earnings right now that comes from the new hires that are sort of brought on this year, but obviously will become much more profitable or maybe break even, I do not know.
But much more profitable than they were when they initially came on this year. Is there a way to give us a sense of sort of the timing of new hire profitability as we go through this new hire process year after year after year to get a thought of sort of how much sits in the pipeline yet to be delivered? Is there a way to frame that?
Kevin Blair
Well, look, I think what you've seen in the past, and it's one of the slides that we've shown at Pinnacle, is showing what the embedded growth is on the balance sheet of individuals who have not fully consolidated their entire books. And what we've said is that's somewhere around $20 billion of future loan growth. And I would submit to you that there's a commensurate level of deposit growth that's embedded there as well.
I'm glad you brought up this question because I ask our team, given where we are right now and exceeding our expectations, to go back and let's just back test. Let's look at how well these new hires are performing. That cohort that I talked about, those folks that have been here less than one year who have slightly more deposits than they have loans, their overall cash compensation is up a little bit over previous years, but their performance is actually exceeding that of previous years and overriding the increased costs.
So much so that that cohort today has a cash compensation coverage ratio of about 88%. What that means is their contribution to the firm is covering about 88% of their cash compensation within the first year. Now, if you look at the cohort that's a year to three years, they're two to three times covering their cash compensation. Our current analysis would suggest that these individuals are of the highest quality, and they're largely almost breaking even in year one, and then within year one to three, they would be at two to three times their cash compensation.
So that's why you've seen our fervor around putting the pedal to the metal with some of these hires, because not only are we successful in the numbers, we are successful in generating business from those hires.
Ed Najarian
Q13
Okay, great. Those numbers are very helpful. Thank you.
Operator · Operator
David Chiaverini
Q14
Hi, thanks for taking the question. My question is on the non-interest-bearing deposit mix. It has been holding in very nicely at about 20%. How should we think about this level going forward with the rate backdrop?
Jamie Gregory
The rate backdrop does make maintaining that level more challenging, but we do expect to see relative stability with slight pressure on that ratio as we go through next year. You are right to think that higher rates make it harder, more difficult to grow non-interest-bearing deposits. We think that there will be a little bit of pressure on the growth rate, but not a material shift in that percentage.
David Chiaverini
Q14
Thanks for that. On the loan side, you made some comments on higher rates and CRE being impacted. Any thoughts on, have you seen or observed any changes in loan demand on the C&I side from higher rates, at least thus far?
Kevin Blair
No, I don't think that we've seen a decline in the pipeline there. My comment on rates on the real estate side is obviously it affects cap rates and it impacts valuations, which obviously we're keen to. We do a survey every quarter with our commercial clients, and what I would submit to you this quarter, our clients are extremely resilient. I would say they're working harder for the same result. What I mean by that is when you ask our clients today what percentage of our client base, and it's about 400 folks that responded, so I consider it a representative sample.
About 38% said that they expect to do more business over the next 12 months. About 40% said that they expected the same level of business over the next 12 months. Ironically, only 15% would expect their business to decline. That is up versus 11% last quarter. But I would say overall, it's still positive by a tone of two to one on growth versus contraction with a slight lean towards caution. I would tell you that I don't think that it's translating into pipelines.
I think our clients are cautious. Their number one concern is margin contraction. Over 50% of our clients expect the cost of the materials and wages to continue to increase, while only about a quarter believe that they can pass those on to their clients. It shows you the issue is not demand, the issue is margin contraction. We'll have to watch that when we underwrite credits, but that doesn't tell us that we would expect to see a drop-off in demand in the near term.
David Chiaverini
Q14
Very helpful. Thank you.
Operator · Operator
Janet Lee
Q15
Good morning.
Kevin Blair
Morning, Janet.
Janet Lee
Q15
A lot of the questions have been asked. Just following up on the Category IV liquidity build, you said you are not contemplating it near term, but you may revisit the plan if the asset threshold or the regulatory thresholds get lifted ultimately. How far would the threshold need to move for you to meaningfully rethink your roughly $1 billion annual build pace? Is $50 billion meaningful enough or not?
Jamie Gregory
It is a great question because when you are growing the low double digits each year, we will crest 150 in the near term. That is partially why when you look at what we are doing on the debt side, we are not slowing down and we are continuing to execute there because we just believe that regardless of where it moves, we are likely to be subject to it in the relative near term. That is why we just keep watching what the environment has out there, but we are just marching along on our existing plan, making sure that we are making progress in the near term.
But you are right. If it moves $50 billion and we cross that in a couple of years, it is not a tremendous difference to us as far as the timing of any of the needs, of capital planning, of liquidity, of data, all of the above.
Janet Lee
Q15
Okay, fair. Thank you. Obviously very strong deposit growth on the core side. One of the key questions, or not concerns, but key questions from investors is your ability to hit the $4.5 billion-ish of deposit growth in the fourth quarter, which you have been in the past. In that fourth quarter guide for deposits, does that contemplate some amount of broker deposits, or are they all just core deposits plus the public funds that are coming back into the balance sheet?
How should we think about the puts and takes in terms of your expectations for deposit growth? You holding the line on deposit cost in the 230 for the $4.5 billion of deposit growth looks pretty good. Just on the dynamics there on the deposit front.
Jamie Gregory
Yes. We are expecting to grow broker deposits in the fourth quarter. When we look at the full-year broker deposit growth, we're expecting broker deposits to grow in line with core deposits. That growth is embedded in achieving the midpoint of that deposit guide. So you're right. You look at the core deposit growth, which is core business repeating what we did this quarter, then you get seasonals on top of that. That could be $1 billion or $1.5 billion. Then on top of that, you have broker deposit growth. That's generally how we're thinking about it.
Janet Lee
Q15
Okay. Thank you.
Operator · Operator
Kevin Blair
Thank you, Matthew. You heard me say several times today, same pattern. Three quarters in our first year as a combined company, we are hitting the milestones we set for ourselves. I would say we are a scrappy company. We find ways to generate growth and drive results, and we do not need a perfect environment to do it. There will always be someone looking for the negative each quarter, but the simple answer is we are winning.
We are winning the same way every quarter. I think the numbers support it. Adjusted EPS up 23%, voluntary turnover 6%, and revenue producer hiring is accelerating, up 57% versus the same quarter last year. Conventional wisdom says that merger costs you momentum. We are gaining it. Our clients continue to have their expectations met and exceeded. Our net promoter scores tell the story up two points this first quarter, and number 1 in our footprint against our peers, and their money tells the same story.
Fewer clients are leaving us in the middle of this merger than were leaving a year ago. Growth, talent, clients. One quarter is a result. Three in a row forms a pattern. We are happy with where we stand, but we are just getting started. We will finish the fourth quarter strong. We will spend the next 144 days making sure that the system and brand conversion in March is seamless for our clients. We will deliver on the 2027 earnings and profitability numbers we committed to the day we announced this deal, because those numbers are how we prove the power of this unified firm.
Each of those adds another quarter to the pattern and retires another risk. Even that is just setting the stage. The bigger picture is that this firm has long proven its differentiation, and this merger is amplifying it at scale neither company could reach alone. The model wins when rates rise and when rates fall. It wins against the largest banks in the country and the best local banks in our markets. It works better with AI as it is enabling the same two things we have always been focused on, a better place to work and a better client experience.
New tools, same model, same competitive advantage. That is scale with a soul. Most importantly, none of it happens without our 8,600 team members who advance the ball every day. To each of you, thank you. For our investors, thank you for listening in today and for your continued interest. I look forward to seeing many of you in the weeks ahead and being back here in January with the fourth quarter adding to our pattern.
Nine months ago, this combination was a question. Today, it is a pattern. In March, one brand, one system makes it one bank. In 2027, it becomes proof. With that, Matthew, we will conclude today's call.
Operator · Operator
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