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Q3 FY26 earnings call

October 15, 2026 · 8,395 words · ~40 min read

Questions

Speakers

Select speakers to read only their turns.

Operator · Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the PNC Financial Services Group Q3 2026 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. it is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Bryan K. Gill, Executive Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Bryan, please go ahead.

BK

Bryan K. Gill

Executive Vice President and Director of Investor Relations

Well, good morning, and welcome to today's conference call for the PNC Financial Services Group. I am Bryan K. Gill, director of investor relations for PNC. Participating on this call are PNC's chairman and CEO, Bill Demchak, and Robert Q. Reilly, executive vice president and CFO. Today's presentation contains forward looking information. Cautionary statements about this information as well as reconciliations of non GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release materials, as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials.

These are all available on our corporate website pnc.com under investor relations. These statements speak only as of October 15, 2026, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them. Now I would like to turn the call over to Bill.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

Thank you, Bryan, and good morning, everyone. The PNC delivered another strong quarter reflecting the consistent execution of our strategy and the strength of our franchise. As you saw, we generated $2.1 billion of net income or $5.09 per diluted share. As adjusted while delivering a return on tangible common equity of more than 18%. Robert is going to take you through the financial results in more detail in a second.

But I wanted to start off by highlighting the substantial client momentum we have been experiencing all year, which has continued through the third quarter. All of our businesses are experiencing robust growth in part driven by the high growth rates of our expansion markets and most recently the successful conversion of FirstBank. In corporate and institutional banking, our national platform continues to generate impressive growth.

Expansion markets have added approximately 500 new client relationships year to date, contributing materially to a 5% average C&IB loan growth during the quarter and 17% growth year over year. Beyond loans, capital markets fees are up 40%. year-to-date and treasury management revenue is up 8%. In retail banking, we continue to grow clients organically adding 215 thousand net new checking accounts so far in 2026. With total accounts up 2% year-over-year, including 6% growth in our Southwest markets.

We continue to deepen relationships with credit card balances up 12% and brokerage assets up 9% year-over-year. At the same time, we continue to invest in capabilities to enhance our franchise with the introduction of both a new mobile app and total rewards program as well as our continued branch expansion. Asset management fees are up approximately 10% year-to-date, and assets under administration totaled $500 billion.

Favorable equity markets have obviously helped here, but once again, our expansion markets have accelerated our growth. In these markets, AUM is growing 5x faster than our legacy markets. Albeit off a smaller base. When we step back and look at the year as a whole, we have grown considerably more than we anticipated coming into 2026. We are bringing new clients into the franchise, expanding relationships across businesses and markets and converting that activity into durable growth in loans, deposits, and fee income.

As we enter the final quarter of the year, we remain focused on disciplined growth prudent risk management and continued investment in the capabilities that strengthen our competitive position. As always, I would like to thank our employees for their hard work and commitment. And with that, I will turn the call over to Robert to take you through the details of the quarter. Robert?

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Our balance sheet is on Slide 5 and is presented on an average basis. For the linked quarter, loans of $372 billion grew by $9 billion or 2%. Security balances increased 3% to $151 billion. Average deposits increased $4 billion or 1% to $461 billion and the borrowings increased $7 billion to $86 billion However, on a spot basis, deposits were down $17 billion and borrowed funds were down $6 billion reflecting continued optimization of our funding mix.

Our tangible book value was $108 per common share, down 3% linked quarter entirely driven by the decline in AOCI. And was stable compared with the same period a year ago. We remain well capitalized with an estimated CET1 ratio of 9.8%. We continue to be well positioned with capital flexibility, During the quarter, we returned $1.4 billion of capital to shareholders, which included approximately $800 million of common dividends, and $560 million of share repurchases.

Going forward, we expect fourth quarter repurchases to approximate the same level. And our return on tangible common equity was more than 18% in the third quarter. Slide 6 shows our loans in more detail. During the third quarter, average loans increased $9 billion or 2% to $372 billion. C&I balances were up $9 billion or 4% reflecting broad based growth across our businesses and higher utilization. Commercial real estate balances were up $2 billion or 4%, driven by strong new production.

Consumer loans were down $1 billion or 1% as growth in credit card was more than offset by lower residential mortgages. As well as the transfer of our student loan portfolio to held-for-sale. You may recall we stopped originating student loans last year and the transfer represents the final step in exiting this non strategic business. We expect the sale to have a de minimis financial impact. In regard to loans overall, spot loans were up $11 billion in the quarter contributing to the strong loan growth we have had throughout the year.

All of which substantially exceeded what we expected at the beginning of the year. Through the first 9 months of 2026,, we have added $47 billion or 14%. While approximately $15 billion came through the FirstBank acquisition, more than $30 billion of the growth has been generated organically. Reflecting strong client activity and execution across our franchise. Slide 7 details our investment securities and swap portfolios.

We continue to maintain a high quality short duration position. During the third quarter, average investment securities were up $4 billion or 3%. Our securities yield was 3.59%, an increase of 14 basis points. And as of September 30, our duration was 4.1 years. Looking ahead, we expect approximately $5 billion of fixed rate securities to run off during the fourth quarter, at a weighted average yield of 2.65%. Our received fixed swap portfolio was $83 billion at quarter end, with an average received fixed rate of 3.92%.

Which increased 17 basis points from last quarter. Importantly, we have a clear path for continued fixed-rate asset repricing over the next several years. Overall, we remain well positioned for a rising rate environment, which will support net interest income, capital generation and balance sheet flexibility. Slide 8 covers our deposit balances in more detail. Average deposits increased $4 billion to $461 billion during the third quarter, driven by growth in interest bearing balances.

Noninterest bearing deposits were $101 billion and represented 22% of total deposits. Notably, period end deposits were down $17 billion or 4% compared to June 30. The strong growth was driven by commercial interest bearing deposits, which were up $11 billion or 7%. In addition, brokered CDs were up $7 billion. The commercial deposit growth was due in part to seasonality, but also reflective of both new and expanded client relationships.

In regard to deposit costs, our total rate paid on interest bearing deposits increased 7 basis points to 1.98%. Including brokered CDs. Excluding brokered CDs, the rate paid increased 5 basis points to 1.96%. The increase was primarily driven by mix, as growth was concentrated in interest bearing balances. Turning to Slide 9, we highlight our income statement trends. Comparing the third quarter to the second quarter of 2026.

Total revenue was $6.6 billion, a decrease of $313 million or 5%. While noninterest expense decreased $347 million or 8% to $3.8 billion Excluding integration costs and significant items from both quarters, revenue declined $61 million or 1% as higher net interest income was more than offset by lower non interest income. On the same basis, noninterest expense decreased $113 million or 3%. Reflecting disciplined expense management.

We generated positive operating leverage and grew PPNR. The provision was $189 million, stable with the previous quarter. Our effective tax rate was 20%. Third quarter net income was $2.1 billion or $5.09 per common share as adjusted. To exclude the impact of $48 million of after tax integration costs and significant items. Importantly, we continue to demonstrate strong momentum across the franchise. Through the first 9 months of the year, PPNR was up $1.2 billion or 17%.

Compared to the same period last year, driving 19% growth in diluted EPS. Turning to Slide 10, we detail our revenue trends. Third quarter net interest income of $4.2 billion increased approximately $100 million or 2%. Driven by commercial loan growth and higher yields on interest earning assets, partially offset by increased funding costs. Our net interest margin was 2.94% and decreased 2 basis points. The modest decline in net interest margin was largely a function of the mix in loan growth, and, to a lesser extent, increased funding costs.

Consistent with what we have seen throughout the year, loan growth during the third quarter continued to be concentrated in high credit quality, lower spread loans. Again, while these loans generate attractive overall economics, through fee income and broader client engagement, by definition, they constrain NIM. Importantly, the underlying drivers of NII growth remain strong, And based on our expectations for loan growth, we calculate that our net interest margin will reach 3% or above in the fourth quarter.

Fee income was $2.1 billion and decreased $137 million or 6%. Looking at the details, asset management and brokerage were up $7 million or 2%. Driven by higher average equity markets and increased client activity. Capital Markets and advisory revenue decreased $144 million or 25%. Reflecting elevated second quarter activity. Card and cash management revenue decreased $3 million as higher treasury management product revenue was more than offset by FirstBank integration related fee waivers.

Lending and deposit services were up $12 million or 3% reflecting increased client activity. Mortgage revenue decreased $9 million or 6% primarily driven by lower residential volumes. And other non interest income was $214 million and included a negative $25 million impact from significant items related to net visa activity. Notably, we continue to see strong momentum across our lines of business and throughout our markets.

And through the first 9 months of the year, our noninterest income totaled $7.3 billion, up $979 million or 15% compared to the same period last year. Turning to Slide 11, third quarter expenses decreased $347 million or 8% compared with the second quarter. Third quarter results $27 million of integration costs, compared to $261 million of integration costs and significant items in the second quarter. Excluding these items from both quarters, non interest expense decreased $113 million or 3%.

We remain focused on expense management and we are on track to reach our goal to reduce costs by $350 million in 2026. through our continuous improvement program. Which, as a reminder, is independent of the FirstBank acquisition. And this program will continue to fund significant portions of our ongoing business and technology investments. Our credit metrics are presented on slide 12. Overall credit quality remains strong.

Nonperforming loans were up $167 million or 8% to $2.2 billion. The increase was primarily driven by the pull through of previously reserved CRE office loans as well as 1 large commercial credit. Total delinquencies declined $135 million to $1.3 billion and now represent 0.34% of total loans, down from 0.39% last quarter. Net charge offs were $257 million or 28 basis points of average loans. and included $35 million associated with the student loan transfer.

Excluding that impact, underlying net charge offs remained consistent with our prior quarter. At the end of the third quarter, our allowance for credit losses was $5.4 billion or 1.42% of total loans. To summarize, PNC reported a strong third quarter of 2026 and we are well positioned for the remainder of the year. Regarding our view of the overall economy, our base case assumes GDP growth to be above 2% in 2026, with continued modest job gains and the unemployment rate holding steady.

We expect the Fed to increase rates 2 additional times with a 25 basis point increase at the December 2026 and March 2027 meetings. Ultimately reaching a range between 4.25-4.5%. For ease of comparability with our prior guidance, our full year outlook excludes the impact of First Bank integration charges and significant items. Considering our reported 9 months operating results, fourth quarter expectations and current economic forecast, our outlook for the full year 2026 compared to 2025, results is as follows.

We expect a full year average loan growth of approximately 13.5%. We expect full year net interest income to be up 15.5%. We expect noninterest income to be up approximately 10.5%. Taking the component pieces of revenue together, we expect total revenue to be up approximately 13.7%. Non interest expense to be up approximately 9.5 percent, and we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 19.5 percent. Our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2026 is as follows.

We expect average loans to be up approximately 2.5% net interest income to be up approximately 4%, fee income to be up approximately 3.5 percent, other non interest income to be approximately $250 million. We expect adjusted non interest expense to increase approximately 5% and we expect fourth quarter net charge offs to be $250 million With that, Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

Questions & answers

Operator · Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. Our first question today is coming from John Pancari from Evercore ISI. Your line is now live.

JP

John Pancari

Analyst

Q1

Good morning.

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Hey, good morning, John.

JP

John Pancari

Analyst

Q1

I appreciate the color that you gave on the margin dynamics You saw the compression in the quarter and deposit costs up 7 bps or 5 bps ex the brokered. Can you maybe discuss given the deposit dynamics, but also your continued growth in the lower spread higher-quality loans, Maybe just discuss the confidence in that 2% or higher margin by the fourth quarter and maybe just how you think that those dynamics impacting the margin as you look at 2027? And I guess maybe just a little bit of color on what the trade off is, how you are looking at lower spread, hard-quality loans in terms of the impact on NII and as you look out from here? Thanks.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

Thanks, John. I will hit it. I am not going to talk about NIM because it is an outcome. So Rob kind of says, we will be over 3. that is on a forecast. Many things could change that. I will talk about NII, though. A couple of things happened. 1 is 50% of our loan growth occurred in the last 2 weeks of the quarter. So we did not get the benefit of that in NII even though we sort of saw it in pipeline. So that rolls forward and Robert's forecast.

The other thing somewhat surprisingly, is spreads overall or spreads on average decline was around 3 basis points or something. Yeah, and some of that was kind of high-yielding loans paying down and some of it was just new production as we have talked about and kind of higher-quality stuff. Dropping the average. Which has surprised us at the margin. And then the third piece, we did not have some escrow balances we thought we would have which would impact noninterest bearing.

So You know, you stick a calendar and date on this stuff and you miss by something and you get it back. I am confident with the momentum and where we are going and the growth and all of the above. Which is part of our guide. You know, all of those are embedded in what we put out there forward.

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Yeah. I. You know, John, I just would add to that a little bit. You know, in terms of NIM. Generally speaking, everything that we thought would happen in the quarter happened, rate paid went up exactly what we thought on core deposits. So the brokered CDs added to that a bit, but we did not expect to do brokered CDs. As you know, we just toggle between the cheapest wholesale funding The difference was the highest. The high credit quality, low spread loans came in hotter than what we thought and that constrain them. that is the biggest difference in terms of NIM relative to our expectations.

When we go forward into the fourth quarter, our calculation is to reach 3 or higher on NIM even though we do not give NIM guidance. But the reason and the easy way to understand that is we see loan yields going up, we see that offset by deposit costs going up. So they offset each other and then the securities' fixed-rate repricing will be the delta that lifts NIM. And that is just a calculation.

JP

John Pancari

Analyst

Q1

Got it. Alright. Thank you for that. I appreciate it. And then on the lower spread lending and higher quality loans, could you just maybe elaborate a little bit more in terms of the type of lending and you could give a little bit of color there on the spread, but maybe the average origination yield. I know you have talked about the trade off on fee income as well and then higher quality from the credit side. Maybe give us an idea of the type of credit loss assumption as you put these loans on your books?

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

Sorry. Credit loss assumption? Very low. it is a lot of growth in the corporate finance book broadly. Think every category in our breakdown of corporate loans increased this quarter.

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

that is right. So with the exception of other.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

Growth in, you know, outpaced by growth in real estate on a percentage basis. Also, just pay down of higher spread loans had an impact. Right? it is hard for new production to actually drop the total average spread by 3 basis points. And so what we saw was the mix of our existing loans to pay downs were biased towards riskier stuff paying off, which is a good thing, but it drops our spread.

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Yeah. No. that is right. And, you know, we are a leader in trade receivables, that is asset backed. that is been strong all year. But what we point to, John, and we said this on the second quarter call, got to see capital markets fees are up 40%. So when you put that together, a lot of those loans are driving those fees. So together, accretive to NII, accretive to earnings, to ROTCE, not necessarily NIM because of the fee portion of that. So if you just look at NII and NIM in isolation, you are not seeing the whole transaction.

JP

John Pancari

Analyst

Q1

Got it. Okay. Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator · Operator

Next question is coming from Scott Siefers from TD Cowen. Your line is now live.

SS

Scott Siefers

Analyst

Q2

Thank you, guys. Good morning. I guess the first question, so you guys have just a lot of really good lending momentum, particularly in C and I. I was hoping you could speak sort of broadly to client sentiment and how if at all, their thinking is being impacted by higher rates. I am guessing, I think, Bill, you mentioned second ago, like, half of the quarter's total loan growth occurred in the last 2 weeks. So I guess I am guessing not much, but would love to hear your thoughts there.

And then, you know, is there sort of a tipping point in your mind where you know, higher rates do start to impact the growth dynamic, and client health, etcetera. You know, how do you think about those crossroads?

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

You know, Robert and I were talking about this last night actually. Just, you know, the what does this burn at the end of the quarter necessarily mean or not mean? I do not think we came to a conclusion. Right. You know, I would tell you part of the outsized if not we had lung growth everywhere. Was gonna say part of the outsize, if not all of it, though, just the pace of it is in our new markets. The new clients that we are onboarding that are record pace and our model is working.

So that is just driving volume. Intuitively, higher rates, you know, this goes forward, is going to crimp CapEx and otherwise slow borrowing, but we are not seeing any instance of that yet and our pipelines remain strong and we will see. You gotta imagine some of that is in anticipation of rates going up on the margin, at least a piece of it, but We do not know.

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

We do not know. it is still strong. Pipeline is strong. that is true.

SS

Scott Siefers

Analyst

Q2

Okay. Perfect. And then you know, maybe to drop it down, I guess, a little bit of a follow-up on some of the fee dynamics. You know, I think at the larger banks, you know, this notion of a sort of cooling in the in capital markets activity since, call it, post Labor Day has been a big factor. Just curious how you are thinking about things like particularly at Harris Williams You know, it seems like very good activity, but just how you are thinking about overall capital markets trajectory?

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Yeah. Yeah. No. We feel good about it. Like I said, we have had a very good year to date. We had a really strong second quarter that we did not expect to continue into the third quarter. But the pipelines are good. We expect I imagine we will get into the fee walk down but we expect capital market fees to be up almost 15% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter, reflecting those pipelines. So it looks good. Alright.

SS

Scott Siefers

Analyst

Q2

Terrific. Thank you very much.

Operator · Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Erika Najarian from UBS. Your line is now live.

EN

Erika Najarian

Analyst

Q3

Yes, thank you. Hey, just as a follow-up on that, I got a few questions on the run rate of, expense growth in the fourth quarter, but it sounds like I am going to be answering my own question, Robert. The capital markets trajectory up 15% quarter over quarter, that is really that is related to cap markets. So that is not necessarily a pull through as we think about expense growth in 2027. Right?

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Right. that is right.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

Well done. Yay. Gold star.

EN

Erika Najarian

Analyst

Q3

And just on, you know, net interest income, you know, some of your peers, unfortunately, I think have given vague previews on net interest income growth for the year. And correct me if I am wrong, Robert, but I am calculating something like 10% ex FirstBank net interest income growth for 2026. The street is at about 6.5%. You know, given the momentum that you have in your new markets and you mentioned that you are well positioned for a rising rate environment. You know, should the rate of NII growth slow down by that much in 2027?

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

Did you say unfortunately, it appears that about 2020?

EN

Erika Najarian

Analyst

Q3

Unfortunately, they unfortunately, they have already previewed the 2027. So now we kinda have to ask you about 2027. Even though it is still October.

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Right. So that was a very long way to ask whether we had guidance on NII for 2027.

EN

Erika Najarian

Analyst

Q3

Got to try. I got to shoot my shot.

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Yeah. No. I think I think I can help you out there. So, as you mentioned, in regard to 2027 NII, obviously, that is out there away. So it is a bit premature for guidance, certainly with precision. But in fairness, given the certainty around the fixed-rate asset repricing, which has been part of our story in 2026, will be in 2027 and beyond that. And the magnitude of that, it does add some certainty that you typically would not have this far in advance So when we look at it, clearly in 2027, we will exceed in net interest income our annualized run rate of what we project to finish 2026 in.

And when we look at the consensus in terms of where you are, you sort of hit it-- that is a billion to 1.1 billion above 2026 in terms of growth. And I think we would agree with that range. When we get out into January, of course, we will have more precision around it. But the fixed-rate asset repricing and the mechanical nature of that is real. It continues for P and C and the magnitude is big.

EN

Erika Najarian

Analyst

Q3

Got it. Thank you.

Operator · Operator

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Manav Ghisalya from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now live.

MG

Manav Ghisalya

Analyst

Q4

Hey, good morning. Can you talk about some of the deposit beta dynamics you expect from here? Just given that the rate paid on core deposit was up, we are going to get further Fed tightening. Anything different going on with the start of this rate hike cycle relative to the prior 1?

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Hi. Good morning, Manav. No. I do not think so. I think in terms of our expectations in terms of betas, with an increasing rate cycle, we will see what we have seen in the past.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

On the front exception, Robert. You gotta remember that back in, whatever it was, 2023, I try to forget. Yeah. The big change was driven by noninterest bearing moving to interest bearing. You know, most of that. Right? The excess deposits out of the system coupled with the kind of base balances or I would say, pretty constant. And so now we are going to see, you know, base interest rate betas move Yeah. In conjunction with history probably. But the impact of that being a lot less than it once was.

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Yeah. I mean, that was that was a special time for all of us when it went up 500 basis points. Set that 1 aside in terms of typical rising rate environment We will see increased betas on the corporate side for sure on the wealth side less so on the lower end consumer retail side, but I think we will settle out in some sort of cumulative beta in the mid-50s like we have done in the past. And part of this part of the drive is just deposit flows from corporates, which come in naturally at a higher beta, higher rate.

And we have seen growth, some of it seasonal, some of it just coming on the back of loan growth and, in effect, growth in deposits coming through corporate flows. That at the margin raise your interest bearing deposit costs even though it is all profitable. it is part of that big jump you said for spot. Yeah. that is okay. At the end of the quarter. No. that is right. that is right.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

And that is good stuff.

MG

Manav Ghisalya

Analyst

Q4

Got it. So I guess as we think about that, comment you made on 50% of the growth, coming in the last 2 weeks of the quarter, any more color on what drove that? Was it because long end of the curve went up, it became more expensive to borrow in the capital markets? Any comment on the sustainability of that level of growth?

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

Yeah. You gotta remember that, you know, somebody does not wake up and say, I am gonna do a syndication today. You know, so they are in the works and it is a pipeline and, you know, they kind of hit on that point. So I cannot you know, things just do not happen quickly enough for 1 of the economic-- to have caused everybody to go in 2 weeks. In the lending market. Right? That happens in the bond market, but not in the lending market.

MG

Manav Ghisalya

Analyst

Q4

Got it. Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator · Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Ken Usdin from Autonomous Research. Your line is now live.

KU

Ken Usdin

Analyst

Q5

Hey, thanks. Hey, just 1 quick follow-up. And Rob, I will take you up on the fee line breakdown. But as it relates to capital markets, capital markets were going to be up. But would not that have been already contemplated in your full year guide? Just wondering on that 5% step up in the expenses. Are you also just maybe pulling forward some other investments into the fourth quarter too? Or is there some seasonality in there as well? Just wanted to kind of, you know, flush that out. And then, yeah, if you give the fee lines, that would be.

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Yeah. Sure of course, Ken. Why do not we do that and complete the fee forecast? So for the fourth quarter, we say fees will be up approximately 3.5%. Inside of that, relative to our categories. Capital markets is the big mover up about 15%. Mortgage will be down Mortgage is not a big category for us, but, you know, obviously, given where rates are and, the seasonality, that will be down. And then the other categories, you know, asset management, credit card, treasury management, lending and deposit services, I would say are all stable.

Maybe they could do a little better, but that is just what we are thinking at the moment. So that is the fees. On the expenses, some of it is actually what we expect to do. Not only in capital markets, but also in our private equity, you will see that our other non interest income guide is up for the fourth quarter. We will do a little bit better there than we thought. So there is some revenue driven expenses part of that, but also some seasonality.

The important part obviously and you know this is the positive operating leverage that we are pointing to still in excess of 4%. between 4% and 4.5%, which is fantastic.

KU

Ken Usdin

Analyst

Q5

Absolutely. And just to follow-up, With the AOCI move, it is no longer in your materials, but do you have what the CET1 was, including AOCI? And I heard on the deck that you are going to keep the $600 million buyback in the fourth quarter. Anything to think about as we go forward? You are obviously generating a lot of organic capital. And the push and pull between where your capital ratios are and your ability to continue that type of buyback? Thanks.

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Yes, sure. So we feel good about our capital position. We rounded down to 9.8 Our target is 10. And that was simply a result of loans coming in higher than we expected, which drove up RWA. So we did have a meaningful repurchase in the third quarter. We expect to do something similar to that in the fourth quarter. So feel good about capital. On the AOCI front, naturally, you got to think about the Basel III rules that are just around the corner or somewhere along those lines which will increase, including AOCI, but obviously, the benefit of the private ratings will increase our capital ratings by about a point or so.

So feel good about that positioning. You know, loading AOCI into this CET1 ratio is a little bit of a stale measure because of those Basel III considerations. If we did that, you know, we dropped to low nines, but certainly above 9 and still a pretty healthy TCE ratio.

KU

Ken Usdin

Analyst

Q5

Got it. Great. Thanks, Robert. Sure. Thank you.

Operator · Operator

Next question is coming from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America. Your line is now live.

EP

Ebrahim Poonawala

Analyst

Q6

Hey, good morning. Good morning. I just wanted to go back. Bill, I think you mentioned you gave 2 stats your opening remarks, 500 new commercial clients and 215 thousand checking account clients year to date. Just talk to us in terms of, 1, should we measure low cost deposits as a way to measure whether or not that strategy is working out and client conversion is being successful. And tied to that, how hard or difficult is it to convert those clients into driving core deposit growth? Low cost deposit growth.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

So separate the 2. You know, retail share has been a real focus. And so we are proud of the DDA growth. Part of that is coming on the back of the branch bills and just for presence in markets. Part of it is being good at what we do. Ultimately, yes, that drives growth in non interest bearing and interest bearing and full relationships. You will hear as we go forward some of the things we are going to do in credit cards that kind of cement the full relationship with these new clients.

But that is to come. On the C&IB side, you know, we are adding the same kind of clients we always have had. Right? We do not this is not sort of a new segment of something we are trying to do. We just doing what we have always done in new markets and gaining share. All of which kind of just builds the franchise. So my whole point in the introduction is the client momentum and growth in this company has never been you know, as fast as this, as good as this.

Yeah. We are we are we are we are And that growth effectively replicates right? We are not we are not changing what we do. So it just replicates who we are in a larger size. Is what we have been pursuing.

EP

Ebrahim Poonawala

Analyst

Q6

Got it. Got it. And I guess maybe we are just moving to expenses. I think we debate whether AI deployment is gonna boost productivity and maybe that has led to lower expense growth for the banks versus there is a lot of discussion about spend on cyber risk due to AI. Just if you do not mind where do you shake out and sort of at least as we think about the next 12 to 24 months, is the cost drag a bigger thing. Bigger deal than the productivity gains?

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

No. I mean, it is such a long answer to that. I want to figure out how I-- we have had the incremental cyber cost associated with the AI frontier models. I think you see in our run rate today, The cost as we work towards, gonna call it, an agentic workforce, the fundamental transformation of the company into 1 that has an ability to deploy agents across workloads. you see that mostly in creeping depreciation expense on the back of all of our data center rebuilds, remembering that we put GPU chips in our data centers.

Much of the work in preparation for all this was done in past years. So our data lake and data configuration all in 1 place, 1 source of truth, digitized policies, procedures, papers, HR systems that recognize agencies, employees, the risk framework on access control, all of that stuff has been built. What comes next is the reengineering of the company using AI harnesses which would speed the development and ultimately lower the cost with technology development and maintenance followed quickly by product development delivery that aids revenue.

We have been purposefully quiet on all of the above. I think 1 of our peers said it, you know, we will show up when we have something positive to show you. And we will quit talking about that until it shows up. But I would assure everyone that we have a well thought out program that is not about bells and whistles that will ultimately allow for a transformation in this company.

EP

Ebrahim Poonawala

Analyst

Q6

Well, and especially when you talk about it in a 2-year or 3-year time frame. Yeah. And that is helpful because I think there is a sense of banks falling behind on agentic AI, especially on the revenue and the client side. But sounds like you are already far along in terms of maybe we wait and watch in terms of what is to come. Thank you.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

What I would-- Okay. Go ahead. What I would say is that it is so easy to get hooked on the bells and whistles and cool toys that come with AI. But to succeed long term, I think you need to have the core infrastructure that allows you to do this at scale and importantly allows you to do it yourself. Without vendor support. Without compute costs coming from third parties. And with your own personnel, instead of vendors and that. that is the path we are pursuing.

EP

Ebrahim Poonawala

Analyst

Q6

Understood. Thank you.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

Thank you.

Operator · Operator

Next question today is coming from Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now live.

GC

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst

Q7

Morning, Troy. Troy. Bill, talking about bells and whistles on AI and all the toys that go with it. what is your guys' view? A lot of managements have been asked this question. On these third quarter calls about the AI agents moving deposits around and forcing deposit costs up for the industry. what is your take on that?

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

So I mean, at its most basic form, there is no question that deposit movement is gonna become more efficient. By the way, that is happened progressively for years. And, is it going to accelerate? Maybe. But at some point in time, you know, given the movement in technology, you are gonna see more competition in deposits not showing up in the moment. The current attempts at this with some of the new agentic applications that have come out where you know, frankly, try to come in and transact on your behalf.

Inside of your accounts. Incredibly unsafe, not going to happen. Bad idea. Yeah. And for that to ultimately take place, there is gonna have to be laws passed on liability shifting. it is gonna have to happen through secure connections and authentication and human in the loop. So it is a big, splashy headlines cool thing, not gonna happen on my watch that something can come in here and transact on your behalf without you knowing it. it is incredibly dangerous thing.

You know, independent of the fact that I run a bank, I just advise everybody that is probably bad practice. But your basic premise, I mean, look, it is. Things have gotten more efficient. You know, there have been capital market portals that allow you to shop money market funds for a basis point. You can sweep into a deposit account, you can put it in a money fund, you can move it here, all that stuff's gonna get easier, and this is gonna happen over time.

And to win in that period of time, we are gonna have to offer our clients technology that is as good as these third party providers so we can allow them to do what they want. Importantly, we are gonna need to produce it cheaply you know, to keep their business. And maintain the service aspect of a transaction. Account. Good.

GC

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst

Q7

Very good. And coming back to your opening comments, Bill, you were talking about coming into the year, how the client momentum has been stronger than you had maybe originally anticipated. Can you try to frame out where aside from the new business--I understand you got the 500 new client relationships that you identified. But from the existing relationships, where's the economic-- I know it is AI related probably, but what are you guys seeing in terms of what is driving this momentum And do you think it is sustainable going into 2027?

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

Look, I mean clearly there is-- we are not large in the data center finance space but there is impact from the capital that has gone into data centers and tangential businesses and that is driven some of it. But I also think we see this in some of the activity in Harris Williams. I think people have basically gotten used to an uncertain world. And so they kinda have to get on with their business. And so everybody was kinda holding and waiting and waiting to see, and have just figured out this is a new norm.

And the economy's ripping. You know, so, you know, there is opportunity sets for people. I think that is what is driving it. I mean, the clouds are as dark as they have ever been, but the economy is still strong. And people are investing into it. I think it is more complicated than that.

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Well, I would add to that. So, what Bill just described, I think all the banks are benefiting from. I think we are benefiting from that obviously as well. But in addition, PNC might be a little bit different because of the compounded success of our expansion, which just keeps showing up. it is just partly-- again, it is a share gain. It just keeps showing up, and it is driving our numbers higher than industry average as you see in the H8 data.

GC

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst

Q7

You see it in the momentum. And coming back to it Robert, on the growth with those 500 new client relationships, are you replacing their banks? Or are you just a complement to maybe an existing banking relationship that these new customers have?

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

it is both. it is both for sure. You know, we have a definition of what a term is, of what is a primary client and it is basically you know, enough share of wallet to check that box as opposed to just doing ancillary. You know, the larger corporates is typically a multi-bank deal. The smaller middle market we will be the new bank in some instances.

GC

Gerard Cassidy

Analyst

Q7

Great. Thank you, guys.

Operator · Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo. Your line is now live.

MM

Mike Mayo

Analyst

Q8

Hi. Just more questions on the commercial loan growth. Just maybe slice and dice a few different ways. So for every $100 of additional commercial loan growth, how much would you say is additional industry growth versus market share? Because I think the industry is picking up the commercial loan growth. And then how much of it would you say is kind of AI CapEx related versus non AI CapEx related or other? And then the third part would be how much of this would be kind of new markets in the say Texas or the Southwest? Thank you.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

All easy questions. Yes, very So let's do it this way, Robert.

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

That might be a take home assignment. Yeah. What was the new markets growth rate was. What was it? 2, 3? Times the legacy markets? In C&IB? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

So you know, take that you know, all that excess growth rate is pure share. Is 1 way to think of it. it is hard to come up with an answer on how much of the AI CapEx is driving loan growth broadly across the economy. Because there is clearly potential effects on any sort of heavy equipment, transportation, energy, you know, component. Yeah. That. that is driving it. So I just do not know that I have an accurate answer to that.

And maybe the negative of it, Mike, is the more worrisome thing, right? So if the CapEx broadly slows down, related to AI. Do we think even though we do not lend directly to that, that it would slow loan growth? Yes.

MM

Mike Mayo

Analyst

Q8

And what is the size of the new markets versus the legacy? I guess it is growing 2 to 3 times faster off a smaller base.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

Well, right now, in corporate banking, the majority of our in-market loans are in the expansion markets. So the balances are actually bigger. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You are right. Quit calling it new. Because Yeah.

MM

Mike Mayo

Analyst

Q8

So you are growing 2 to 3 times faster in the new markets and the new markets at this point are bigger than legacy markets?

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

Ex our national businesses, yes, that is true.

MM

Mike Mayo

Analyst

Q8

And as far as Texas or the Southwest in particular, because that is been a hot area recently, is that how fast is that growing? Is that the 2 to 3 times faster or is that even still faster?

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

it is, you know, that is the obvious 1. it is it is growing at that rate. But, you know, California is growing. Florida. Florida. Yeah. You know, the business we are getting out of Colorado.

MM

Mike Mayo

Analyst

Q8

And then there is some industry tailwind though, right, with CapEx picking up overall. I mean, how much is that contributing? And do you think this is kind of a multiyear change? Because just go back a couple of years ago, there was not much growth and now there is growth again. Is this, like, 1 quarter, 1 year? The next 5 years? I know nobody has a crystal ball, but you are closer to it than we are.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

Yeah. Look, I think it has legs for the time being. I think there is a lot of things that could you know, knock the legs out. Pipelines are strong, activity levels are strong. And that is gonna continue. But we all see stuff that can cause that to stop. I cannot see out that far. any better than you can?

MM

Mike Mayo

Analyst

Q8

Alright. Great. Thank you.

Operator · Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from David Schieterini from Jefferies.

DS

David Schieterini

Analyst

Q9

Hi. Thanks for taking the questions. Can you remind us of PNC's sensitivity to rates and positioning of the balance sheet?

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Yeah. Yeah. We are, and you can see that in terms of our guidance on, we have worked hard relative to short term rates that were pretty neutral. So anything that happens in the short term in terms of rate increases for 2026, in particular. You know, obviously, and we have said this before and it is obvious, the steeper the yield curve in a good economy is better for us. Because of this fixed-rate asset repricing dynamic.

That if we can price these loans that are on our books at higher levels. that is accretive. So we are well positioned for that environment and, you know, that is part of our confidence in terms of our NII growth.

DS

David Schieterini

Analyst

Q9

Thanks for that. And then hitting on credit quality, solid trends overall. You mentioned about the NPL increase, CRE office and 1 large commercial credit. If you are able to share or willing to share what industry that large commercial credit in and your outlook from here on credit.

RQ

Robert Q. Reilly

Executive vice president and CFO

Sure. And on the 1 large credit, it is in the service providers, you can see that in our detail of loans. Nothing particularly thematic about it, just a company that is hit some cash flow issues. The other part of the NPL that is important to point out is the continued pull through of the already reserved CRE office loans. So we have worked that book down pretty well. We still have a lot of reserves. But, you know, as we had said for years, that will flow through non performers and ultimately charge offs.

But, again, that is all been paid for. Outside of that, credit quality is good. In consumer, you can see that in the consumer numbers, delinquencies are down. C&IB corporate, with the occasional deal or 2. Very strong.

DS

David Schieterini

Analyst

Q9

Graham, maybe if I can squeeze 1 more question is just on the M&A appetite, what your latest thoughts are there? First Bank acquisition clearly is seeing some nice tailwinds and success there, but provide your latest thoughts on the M&A front.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

Sure. I will take that. So a couple of things. 1 is our organic growth. Is surprising even us. You see that in the client numbers and the pace and size of pipelines. And 2, as I look into the foundation we are putting forth on AI, and the necessary organizational change. And efficiencies that will come with that I am hesitant to slow that down, which would perhaps necessarily be the case where we could do an acquisition of any size.

So put differently, I think the world's gonna change in the next couple of years. And we want to lead that. If that gets slowed down because we otherwise got into some big M&A deal, I think you could destroy massive value. That does not you know, there is always small things and Robert always says we see everything that shows up, and you can never say never. Maybe there is some small thing, but at the moment, our momentum is fantastic. And the transformation we are gonna go through, I think, is strategically more important than bulk. It needs to stay top of mind.

DS

David Schieterini

Analyst

Q9

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator · Operator

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Chris McGratty from KBW. Your line is now live.

CM

Chris McGratty

Analyst

Q10

Hello, Chris. Perhaps your phone is on mute. There we go. Sorry about that. More of a question on risk tolerance. I think in your prepared remarks, you talked about the growth in the quarter was high quality, lower risk. I guess, is there any change in either PNCs or client risk tolerance that you are observing with the changes in the macro and the rates recently? Thanks.

WS

William S. Demchak

Speaker

None, inside of the way we are deploying capital. I am not sure I understood client tolerance question. Maybe. Demands of credit. Yeah. Yeah. it is you know, you will hear us say this over and over again for years. We kinda stay inside of our basic structures and types of clients and grow the book through increasing clients as opposed to you know, jumping into new risky buckets. Thank you.

Operator · Operator

Thank you. We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.

BK

Bryan K. Gill

Executive Vice President and Director of Investor Relations

Thank you all for joining our call today and your interest in PNC. And please feel free to reach out to the IR team if you have any additional questions. Thanks everybody.

Operator · Operator

Thank you. Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

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