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Nicole Shelton
Good morning, and welcome to the General Dynamics Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press 1 again. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Nicole Shelton, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Please go ahead. Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the General Dynamics Fourth Quarter 2025 Conference Call. Any forward-looking statements made today represent our estimates regarding the company's These estimates are subject to some risks and uncertainties. Additional information regarding these factors is contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings. We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures.
For additional disclosures about these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, please see the slides that accompany this webcast, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website investorrelations.gd.com. On the call today are Phebe Novakovic, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Danny Deep, President, and Kim Kuryea, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Phebe.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Danny Deep
Thank you. So I want to spend some time exploring the $104 million decrease in operating earnings on a quarter-over-quarter basis. As you might imagine, there were lots of puts and takes in the quarter. The margin issue was the G600 product line, which had $75 million less in earnings. That was attributable to the delivery of three fewer aircraft in the quarter, a $21 million variance in liquidated damages, favorable settlements in the prior year's quarter, some higher overhead than in the prior quarter, and the imposition of tariffs in this quarter but not in 2024.
If we adjust for these items, the earnings and margin rate on the G600 are very similar for both quarters. On a quarter-over-year-ago quarter basis, earnings on the G500, Gulfstream Services, and Jet Aviation were down modestly. Now in all of this, there is some good news. The earnings for the G800 more than replaced the G650 earnings on the same basis. The G700 also experienced higher earnings despite two fewer deliveries. Obviously, margins are improving nicely on that product. Phebe?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Danny Deep
So let me give you some additional detail on several key awards. For some time, we have been talking about the strong demand signals we are observing, particularly in our international portfolio. And as Phebe mentioned, that demand transitioned to some significant awards in the fourth quarter. In Germany, we received two awards for more than $4 billion for our Eagle tactical vehicles. In Norway and The United Kingdom, we were awarded $600 million for our bridges.
And in Canada, we received awards for $640 million for light armored vehicles and additional logistics vehicles. Altogether, a nice order distribution both geographically and across our product portfolio. Here in The United States, working closely with the US Army, we continue to make good progress on the acceleration of the next generation M1E3 main battle tank. All of this provides a strong base for continued strength at Combat. I'll pass it back to Phebe.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Danny Deep
As Phebe just mentioned, we have seen demonstrable increases in productivity and throughput at our shipyards. At Electric Boat, as you all know, we have made considerable investments over the last several years, and those investments have enabled a significant increase in output. One key measure of output is submarine tonnage produced, and Electric Boat is up 13% over last year. At Bath Iron Works, we are seeing consistent ship-over-ship learning.
And at NASCO, we are seeing a very positive trend in terms of schedule variances against plan for each successive ship we built. Our priority in the Marine group is to remain laser-focused on execution and continue to accelerate production, and we are seeing good progress on that front.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Danny Deep
Let me say that these businesses did very well in an extremely difficult market. The long continuing resolution was particularly and the examination of all contracts by the Department of Government Efficiency hurt growth and slowed contracting activity early in the year. Nevertheless, these businesses persevered and came through it all on a very good basis. Given all of that, the group had very nice order activity for the year.
Total orders for the group reached $15.9 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.92 to one for the quarter and 1.2 times for the year. This left the group with an increased year-over-year backlog at $16.7 billion, and total estimated contract of $49.9 billion. Pretty well done under the circumstances. Danny will give you a little bit more here.
I'll just give a little more color on how this group is positioned going forward. Phebe mentioned a very solid backlog to end the year. This combined with a robust order pipeline of close to $120 billion of qualified opportunities, certainly presents a healthy market picture as we look forward. In addition, at Mission Systems, the transition from legacy programs is complete, allowing them to focus where they have deep domain expertise.
This expertise aligns well with their customers' priorities in areas including encryption, subsea warfare, and strategic deterrent. The market outlook coupled with very solid win and capture rates positions this group for durable growth beyond this year. I'll turn it back to Phebe. Thanks. And let me ask Kim to provide details on our cash performance for the quarter and the year. Overall order activity and backlog, and any other items she might like to address. I'll then come back to discuss our thoughts on 2026.
Kim Kuryea
Thank you, Phebe, and good morning. Let me first start with orders and backlog. Our order activity and backlog continued to be a strong story and a highlight for us in 2025. We achieved an overall book-to-bill ratio for the year of 1.5 to one, even as revenue grew by 10%. Let me go through the full-year book-to-bill rates for 2025 at each of the segments. First, the defense segments. Combat Systems achieved a book-to-bill of 2.1 times driven by continued robust demand at each business.
Particularly at European Land Systems where we received over $10 billion in new awards. Marine Systems achieved a book-to-bill of 1.7 times with each of our shipyards receiving awards for additional ships in 2025. And Technologies achieved 1.2 times a nice award activity at both GDIT and Mission Systems. Moving to Aerospace. Gulfstream finished the year really strong with their second-best orders quarter since the second quarter of 2008.
The full-year dollar-based book-to-bill for this segment was 1.2 times, marking the fifth consecutive year achieving a book-to-bill greater than one. The robust demand across our portfolio resulted in finishing the year with a record total backlog of $118 billion, an astonishing 30% increase over last year. Total estimated contract value, which includes options and IDIQ contracts, ended the year also at a record level of $179 billion, a 24% increase from last year.
It's interesting to note that each of the defense segments ended the year at record levels for both of these metrics, and Aerospace ended at levels not seen since the announcement of the G650 in 2008. Turning now to our cash performance for 2025. I think it's worth noting how we started the year. As a reminder, at the beginning of 2025, we were expecting a free cash flow conversion rate between 80-85%, as we work through some working capital challenges.
As we progressed through the year, we upped that projection to the low nineties. Well, I'm happy to report that we ended 2025 in line with our third quarter. Let's get to the specifics. The fourth quarter was another strong cash quarter with operating cash flow of $1.6 billion, which brought us to $5.1 billion of operating cash flow for 2025. A billion dollars higher than 2024. After considering capital expenditures, our free cash flow for the year was just shy of $4 billion for a cash conversion rate of 94%.
Working capital for the year improved nicely over our original plan due to stronger than expected collections and inventory reductions at Gulfstream. While all of our business units contributed nicely to our cash flow for the year, during the fourth quarter, Combat Systems and Aerospace had particularly strong cash generation. As we signaled, capital expenditures were up significantly in the fourth quarter to $609 million, which adds up to $1.2 billion spent for the full year.
For 2025, capital expenditures were in line with our expectations and up almost 30% over 2024. In the fourth quarter, we also paid $490 million to purchase assets that were originally under lease. Combined, we invested 3.1% of revenue on assets to support the facilities and fixtures that enabled the continued growth of our businesses. During the fourth quarter, we were in the commercial paper market to support our liquidity during the government shutdown but ended the year with no commercial paper outstanding.
Our cash balance as of year-end was $2.3 billion with a net debt position of $5.7 billion, down $1.4 billion from 2024. Moving on to our 2026 cash flow projections. We expect to return to our free cash flow conversion rate goal of 100% of net income. This is based on particularly strong operating cash flow, offsetting elevated levels of continued investment across our businesses. Capital expenditures are expected to increase over $900 million or 79% from 2025.
Our capital expenditures will equal between 3.5-4% of sales as we continue to invest especially in our shipyards to accelerate production and meet future demand. The free cash flow for the year breaks down as follows. The quarters are expected to each be positive and grow slightly with the fourth quarter still representing the largest, but much less of a climb as compared to 2025's plan. We have $1 billion of notes coming due in 2026.
Our plan assumes that these notes will be refinanced, but this is something that we will continue to evaluate as time approaches. Turning to interest. Our net interest expense in the fourth quarter was $63 million, bringing interest expense for the full year to $314 million. That compares to $76 million and $324 million in the respective 2024 periods. Under the assumption that we refinance the maturing notes, we expect interest expense to increase to approximately $340 million due to higher expected interest rates on the new debt.
Wrapping up with income taxes. Our 2025 full-year effective tax rate ended up at 17.5%, consistent with our guidance. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect the tax rate to remain at a similar level. Additionally, our cash taxes should remain around the same level, with both years receiving some benefit from the R&D capitalization recovery. That concludes my remarks. I'll turn it back over to you, Phebe.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Nicole Shelton
Thank you, Phebe. As a reminder, we ask participants to ask one question and one follow-up so that everyone has a chance to participate. Operator, could you please remind participants how to enter the queue? Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to withdraw your questions, simply press star 1 again. We'll take our first question from Seth Seifman at JPMorgan.
Questions & answers
Seth Seifman
Thanks very much and good morning, everyone.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Seth Seifman
Q1
Wanted to start off asking maybe about Aerospace profitability. And if you can talk about the market cap from here. For kind of through the product transition. To $708,100.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Seth Seifman
Q2
Going away. There's some market expense for this year.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Seth Seifman
Q3
Yeah. Sorry. Can you hear me a little bit better now?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Seth Seifman
Q4
Oh, okay. Great. Thanks. So she could say it again because Yeah. So We got every other word.
Cool. Aerospace profitability, I guess, now that we're through the product transitions, you know, there's some improvement expected in '26 here, but I think the hope is that those margins become more robust. And so how do you think about getting there? And is it the supply chain that's the chief impediment as you know, we're seeing in some other places as well, and what are the plans to mitigate that?
Danny Deep
Yeah. I can take that. This is Danny here. Yeah. Look. We think margins are going to continue to improve. As you said, you know, we're up about 70 basis points in '26 versus '24. Think we'll see some improved pricing, improved efficiencies, some lower overheads, and some lower research and development costs, so that will be helpful. I think right now, we have headwinds around tariffs. Some of the cost increases that we've incurred in the supply chain happened before we're able to reflect them in our increased pricing.
And we do have the opportunity to increase pricing, but that's often in periods to when the cost increase has been incurred from the supply chain. But we continue to expect improvement there.
Seth Seifman
Q4
Alright. Okay. Okay. Great. And then maybe if you can update us on your expectations for future submarine contracts? For both Columbia and Virginia that would be great in terms of timing and in terms of how they are different than in the past.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Seth Seifman
Q5
Okay. Great. Thanks very much.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Doug Harned
Q6
Hi, Doug. You know what? Hi. Is this Hang On Marine?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Doug Harned
Q7
And then on Combat, the backlog story was really strong, and clearly, European demand is very high. And our assumption would be that that kind of demand growth would continue. When you look at the scale of the backlog increase you're seeing there, how long will it take, or what are your expectations in the ability to convert that to revenue growth over time?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Doug Harned
Q8
Very good. Thank you.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Gautam Khanna
Q9
Good. You made a reference to a tariff impact at Gulfstream at Aero. I was wondering how much you guys absorbed in '25 and what are you expecting in '26? If you could frame that for us.
Danny Deep
Yeah. Sure. Sure. So the impact of tariffs in 2025 was $41 million. But let me help you a little bit with tariff as best I can. So there's a cash outlay when the tariff is imposed when the material is coming into the country. But the cost to earnings happens at a different point. As you know, we recognize revenue and earnings when we actually deliver the plane. And that's also when we recognize the tariff impact. And so now there's this other element where how much of that can we get back in terms of some sort of reimbursement, and that's difficult to predict.
So the tariffs that we are going to see in 2026 are largely based on cash that we expended in 2025. It will be higher than in 2025, so higher than the $41 million, but those tariffs are contemplated in our 2026 margins.
Gautam Khanna
Q9
Got you. Thank you. That's helpful. And if we're gonna shift to Marine, the increase in 18% sequentially. How much is that at the yard itself in terms of productivity versus in the supply because historically, guys have called out the supply chain kind of being a constraint. I'm just wondering how that has improved relative to before.
Danny Deep
Yeah. Look. I mean, I don't know how to apportion both of those impacts, but they're both impactful on the margins. I think as Phebe said, when we get the supply chain operating at a full cadence and at full efficiency, that will have an impact on margins. And then equally so, our own productivity and focus on execution. As we continue to improve and we're on that path, we should expect to see improvements in margins. So we think those improvements will be durable and steady as you've seen from 2024 to 2025. We'll see continued strength there and increases.
Gautam Khanna
Q9
Thank you.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Scott Deuschle
Q10
Good morning. Kim, can you walk us through what drives free cash flow conversion to the 100% range in '26? Despite that big step up in CapEx?
Kim Kuryea
Yeah. Sure. So we're really looking at, you know, basically strong operating performance out of the business units. And that's the major driver. Obviously, we are increasing CapEx to a significant extent, but that's factored in. And we, you know, our goal is to be at 100% and that's what we're targeting for 2026. And, quite frankly, into the next couple of years.
Scott Deuschle
Q10
Okay. Just to clarify, is the Navy offering some working capital support for the Navy CapEx?
Kim Kuryea
Not at this point.
Scott Deuschle
Q10
Okay. Not to our knowledge. Okay. And then, Danny, given the strong orders and demand at Gulfstream, as well as the strength on the production and supply chain side, I guess, wouldn't the delivery growth in 2026 be higher than this 1% increase? Ask another way. What's the limiting factor on delivery growth at Gulfstream?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Scott Deuschle
Q11
Makes sense. Thank you.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Sheila Kahyaoglu
Q12
Good morning, everyone, and great quarter. Maybe, just on your last comments, given we're on Aviation, the order momentum has been secured. Can you talk a little bit about what's driving that? Maybe by geography, was it bonus depreciation? Or is it the new model into you have going in?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Sheila Kahyaoglu
Q13
Great. And if I could follow-up maybe on the capital deployment comments. How do we think about GD Combat what's going on there? There's been a lot of press about capacity and missions and ammo. You know? How are you thinking about capacity coming online for combat and how that factors into the 3.5% of CapEx to sales ratio over the next few years?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Sheila Kahyaoglu
Q14
Great. Thank you.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Matt Akers
Q15
I guess, Phebe, historically, you guys have usually guided x capital deployment, and I think probably a lot of us just go ahead and stick it in our models anyway. But just, I guess, given some of the pressure we've seen on the industry on buybacks, I guess, you comment on maybe whether we should be a little bit more cautious on assuming that this year?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Matt Akers
Q16
Yes. Got it. And then I guess just one more kind of the CapEx with the step this year. I mean should we think of this as kind of a multiyear investment that needs to be made? Or is this more something that will kind of revert to more normalized levels in '27 and beyond?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Matt Akers
Q17
Great. Thank you.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Myles Walton
Q18
Thanks. Good morning. You've previously given medium-term margin expansion sort of color for Aerospace. I was curious if you could maybe update those margin outlook targets.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Myles Walton
Q19
Is mid to high teens still reasonable for '27?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Myles Walton
Q20
And is the Combat growth in '26 absorbing much of any headwind on the Ajax program, if you could size that?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Myles Walton
Q21
Okay. Thank you.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Robert Stallard
Q22
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Robert Stallard
Q23
Phebe, given some of the geopolitical activities over the last few weeks, I was wondering if you've seen any change in the conversation with your European customers with regards to buying US sourced equipment rather than stuff you actually make in Europe.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Robert Stallard
Q24
Okay. And then secondly, on the Aerospace side, you know, there's been concerns over the last few months perhaps over this AI bubble. I was wondering if there has been any notable change in your backlog here and whether there has been any increase in AI-related orders over the last, say, six to twelve months?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Robert Stallard
Q25
Okay. That's great. Thank you very much.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Ronald Epstein
Q26
Hey. Good morning, everybody. How are you?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Ronald Epstein
Q27
Just a couple quick ones here for you, Phebe. Battleships. How do you think about battleships? Battleships, Golden Dawn. I mean, that's a lot of stuff going on. How do you think about that with your ship business?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Ronald Epstein
Q28
Is there, like, gonna be a down select? Have they imported it? You know what I mean? I don't know how to think about it. Because they're gonna be, like, a physical
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Ronald Epstein
Q29
Got it. Okay. Yeah. Fair enough. And then is this too simple of a way to think about Gulfstream? So I mean, this you know, everybody's been asking those questions. So sorry. Apologies, everyone. But in kinda really simple terms, you guys have brought to market sort of a refreshed fleet of kit. Right? So a bunch of new airplanes. That's driving demand. Because you got the newest stuff out there. You know, it's early days in many of these programs.
So as you go down the learning curve, that's you should get some margin expansion. So as we walked out over the next several years, naturally, should we just see margins improve because you just get better at building new airplanes? And you're presumably not to put words in anybody's mouth, not gonna launch anything immediately. So you've got this stuff maturing. Margins go up. And demand stays good because you got a new product out there. That's too simple a way to think about it.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Ron Epstein
Q30
Got it. Got it. And then maybe if I can just flip it one last one.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Ron Epstein
Q31
Been running that company for a while, and you've been on the hill, been all over. How do you think about some of the stuff coming out of administration directing defense companies on what how to deploy capital. I mean, you know, as a leader of an organization, that's, you know, deployed capital arguably pretty prudently over the years, how do you think about that?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Ronald Epstein
Q32
Got it. Alright. Thank you.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
John Gadden
Q33
Thanks for taking my question, I wanted to keep digging into the trend in munitions. You had so many positive callouts in the prepared remarks. Obviously, we've seen a lot of growth in the weapon systems and munitions subsegment within Combat Systems. And I get a lot of questions on how long that strength might last, where production rates and run rate revenue can go over years and what incremental margins on munitions revenue look like versus overall Combat Systems margins.
So I know you might not wanna give all that detail, but I was hoping we could dialogue a bit about the trajectory just to get a better handle on the shape of the business over the coming years?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
John Gadden
Q34
Okay. That's very helpful. And if I could just ask one more on supply chain and Gulfstream. And I know there's been some dialogue on that already on the call. But specifically, with commercial aerospace productions volumes ramping, do you think there's any knock-on impact on Bizjet supply chain, whether it's demand for materials, subcomponents, labor, etcetera, Anything there to think throughout?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
John Gadden
Q35
With Boeing ramping production dramatically, Airbus as well. Is there a knock-on?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Andre Madrid
Q36
Thank you for taking my question. Good morning.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Andre Madrid
Q37
I wanted to really nail down into international a bit. Could you maybe tell us what the book-to-bill was for the quarter and for the year? And how are you thinking about demand moving into '26? I know we've talked about it in each of the individual segments. But is it fair to say that growth on international will probably outpace the broader business in the year?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Andre Madrid
Q38
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Yeah.
Danny Deep
Yeah. I can answer that. Yeah. So I think as Kim said, we had a book-to-bill in the fourth quarter at specifically at European Land Systems of over four to one. So that was by far the biggest impact. I think as you think about it in the context of Combat, which is where the bulk of our international activity is, European Land Systems will be the fastest grower by far. And so we expect to see really, really positive growth over the plan period and you'll start to see the real acceleration, as Phebe said earlier, in '27 and beyond. Some of these are long cycle programs but certainly at European Land Systems, we expect to grow quickly.
Andre Madrid
Q38
Got it. And then if I could squeeze one more in. I know back at AUSA in October, you highlighted some of the demand that you're seeing around UGVs. We've seen them being used to extreme effect in Eastern Europe right now. What do you think the market looks like for unmanned ground? I mean, is that something that might be much more tangible in the years to come? Is there, like, kind of a, you know, a benchmark that you guys are setting to for how that business might perform?
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
Andre Madrid
Q39
Thank you. Appreciate it.
Phebe Novakovic · Operator
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