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Q3 FY26 earnings call

October 20, 2026 · 7,263 words · ~35 min read

Questions

Speakers

Select speakers to read only their turns.

Operator · Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Aeromexico's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a question and answer session at the end with instructions given at that time. to ask a question section on the webcast. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. Now I would like to hand the conference over to Ms. Lucero Medina, Head of Investor Relations. Ms. Medina, you may begin.

LM

Lucero Medina

Head of Investor Relations

Good morning, everyone. Joining me today to discuss our results are Andrés Conesa, Chief Executive Officer; Aaron James Murray, chief commercial officer and Ricardo Sánchez Baker, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, I would like to take this opportunity to remind you that during the course of this call, we will present results that are based on our--on Aeromexico's consolidated financials. Accordingly, the financial results discussed today are based on information available to us as of the date of this call and are not a comprehensive final statement of our financial results for any period presented.

We may make forward looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Regarding future events and our company's future performance. We caution you that several important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from any plans and expectations expressed in this call, including the risk factors disclosed in our SEC filings. During this call, we will present certain non-IFRS financial measures.

We have included a reconciliation and explanation of adjustments and other considerations of our non-IFRS measures to the most comparable IFRS measures in earnings release. Both our call and the earnings release are available on our website. It is now my great pleasure to turn the call over to Andrés Conesa.

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

Thank you, Lucero, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining us today to discuss our third quarter 2026 results. We delivered strong third quarter results. Let me once again highlight the resilience and the new strength of our domestic business model. These results also demonstrate the significant progress we have made in recent years to build a stronger and more flexible company, better positioned to navigate periods of uncertainty, including today's high fuel cost environment.

I would like to thank the entire Aeromexico team for their commitment and discipline in executing through a challenging environment. By putting our customer first, while maintaining strong cost control, the team continues to protect the quality of our service and capitalize on attractive revenue opportunities. Credit margin reached a strong 12%. Supported by record quarterly revenue that came in above the midpoint of the June guidance range.

In a quarter defined by higher than expected and volatile fuel prices, delivering a double digit EBIT margin is a significant achievement. It demonstrates the strength of our business, our ability to capture premium revenues, and the disciplined execution of our teams. Demand remains healthy. Supported by a successful peak season that extended through September and delivered outstanding load factors. We also continue to see strong contributions from our premium products and loyalty program, which enhance our offering and reinforce customer preference for Aeromexico.

Premium revenue represented 42% of total revenue. Up 1 percentage point year over year, while loyalty penetration reached 40%. An 8-point increase versus last year. Total revenue grew 14% year over year driven by 3 in another revenue streams, including travel and loyalty. Together, these factors, with corporate revenue management initiatives, supported our performance during the quarter. Capacity increased by around 1% year over year in the third quarter.

And as a temporary negative impact of the World Cup in June and July normalized, we saw a clear improvement in both factors. August reached 90%, and September recorded 87%. Which is a very strong level for a shoulder season month following the summer peak. More importantly, forward bookings remain strong. Supporting a constructive outlook for the remainder of the year. This gives us confidence that underlying demand trends remain solid and that our capacity is well aligned with market conditions.

Growth more than offset the year over year increase in fuel cost. Despite the actual prices being generally above our guidance. Fuel costs increased by approximately a $170 million year over year in the third quarter. Including nearly $93 million above the guidance we shared with you in early July. However, revenue growth was not enough to offset the combined increase in fuel and non-fuel costs. In addition to the higher than expected fuel expense, we experienced an anticipated increase in nonfuel costs derived from inflationary pressures and cost pressures resulting from the appreciation of the Mexican peso.

Even so, our teams responded to revenue initiatives fuel recapture actions, and discipline capacity deployment enabling us to deliver a very strong level of profitability in the quarter. This third quarter also showed early signs of a better cost ex fuel trajectory. Some pressures, including FX, started to normalize, and our teams continue to manage the cost base with discipline. Looking ahead, as operating leverage yields, CASM, excluding fuel, is expected to continue to improve.

This is important because it demonstrates that beyond the temporary impact of fuel, we believe that the underlying business is moving in the right direction. We have improving cost momentum and a stronger foundation for sustainable profitability. As a result of this software resilience, we ended the quarter with a cash position above the level reported in the third quarter of 2025. Financial debt, leases, continue on a downward trajectory while we maintain our investment program without raising additional debt.

Our focus remains on investing for the future, while protecting liquidity and preserving the financial strength of the business. Our network will continue to grow through the recently announced re-launching in 2027, including Mexico City to Milan, Guadalajara to Paris, Nassau, and Montego Bay. This expansion reflects our confidence in the long term demand outlook and that we are disciplined approach to growth. Adding capacity selectively in markets where we see attractive opportunities to generate profitable returns.

The US Department of Transportation decision immediately revoked its prior order disapproving scheduled service to a Mexican carrier, marks a very positive development for us. It removes an important restriction on our ability to add frequencies and launch new scheduled services between Mexico City and The United States. Subject to applicable regulatory requirements. This gives us greater flexibility to capture attractive growth opportunities strengthen our transborder network, and offer our customers more connectivity between Mexico and The United States.

Taking care of our customers also means delivering a reliable operation. Every day in every market we serve. This is something our teams have been focused on, and the results are clear. Cirium once again recognized Aeromexico As the most on time airline in the world during the third quarter. Together with our performance in the first and second quarters, this positions us very strongly to receive these recognition for the third consecutive year.

A feat that no other airlines has achieved in history. Building on our strong third quarter results and solid outlook, we plan to remain focused on operating reliably protecting revenue performance, managing costs with discipline, and further strengthening our balance sheet. Ricardo will provide more detail on our Q4 and full year outlook shortly. Before that, I want to highlight the positive opportunities ahead with the demand and a favorable fair environment supporting continued revenue momentum.

We also see new operating leverage embedded in our existing fleet. At the same time, we anticipate continuing to invest in relentlessly in customer experience and in the network to make Aeromexico the preferred choice for charters. We are confident that this combination of strong execution, discipline growth, and a resilient business model will continue to differentiate Aeromexico and create long term value for our customers, employees, and shareholders. With that, I will turn it over to Aaron to discuss our commercial performance in more detail.

AJ

Aaron James Murray

Chief commercial officer and Ricardo Sánchez Baker, our Chief Financial Officer

Thank you very much. Thank you, Andrés, and good morning, everyone. I want to thank the entire Aero team for their hard work and dedication and our customers for their continued loyalty. As Andrés mentioned, we delivered the strongest quarterly revenue performance in Aeromexico's history, with total revenue of $1.62 billion, up 13.6% year over year. This performance reflects strong demand across the network, and the benefits of the commercial initiatives we are executing.

International revenue showed strength across all regions, increasing 17.4% year-over-year, led by long-haul markets and the U.S. region. Growth in the U.S. region was especially notable given the high comparison base as last year's third quarter marked the inflection point in US demand recovery. Regarding domestic, performance strengthened throughout the quarter as we distanced ourselves from the World Cup. Resulting in domestic revenue growing 6.7% year-over-year.

Turning to commercial initiatives. Aeromexico Rewards continues to be an important driver of customer engagement and revenue quality. As Andrés mentioned, program participation reached a new record in the third quarter of 40%. Up 8 points year-over-year and 19 points since the program's reacquisition and rebranding in 2023. Redemption revenue grew 27% year-over-year, 2x more than total revenue growth for the quarter, as investments in the program continue to bring value to customers.

Regarding modern airline retailing, our redesigned branded fare structure is driving significant incremental revenue by better aligning our product offering with different customer needs and willingness to pay. This enables us to more effectively position our premium offering while expanding our ability to compete for more price sensitive demand. These capabilities continue to support growth in our direct online channel in the third quarter, direct online share remained at an all time high of 48%, up 2 points year-over-year and 23 points versus 2019.

These initiatives are giving us greater control over how we present, differentiate, and monetize our products. Enabling more disciplined execution of our premium strategy while giving us the flexibility to compete across a broader range of customer segments. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Ricardo will provide details of our guidance, but we continue to see strong demand trends across all geographies. In September, our fall sales campaign generated 45% more revenue than the previous year.

In response to rising fuel costs, Aeromexico remains focused on fuel recapture initiatives and then maintaining flexibility in capacity management. Regarding capacity, fourth quarter growth will be driven primarily by widebodies as Aeromexico continues expanding its long haul network in Europe and Asia enabled by recent 87 deliveries. This wide body growth reflects a continued stretching of demand into the traditionally weaker periods, particularly in European markets, and includes the extension of Monterrey Paris to year round and the annualization of our recently launched Mexico City Barcelona service.

In addition, in the fourth quarter, we plan to grow domestic capacity between 3% and 4% enabled by the increase in Mexico City slots from 44 to 46 per hour. Expect this growth to enhance our leading domestic position at our hub. In closing, we believe Aeromexico is well positioned to deliver a strong finish to the year supported by continued revenue momentum, growing customer engagement, and a disciplined approach to growth. I will now turn the call over to Ricardo.

RJ

Ricardo Javier Sánchez Baker

Our Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. First, I would like to join Andrés and Aaron In thanking the entire Aeromexico team for its outstanding efforts and execution during the quarter. Our results reflect the team's ability to remain focused responsive, and disciplined while navigating significant fuel price volatility. foreign exchange movements, and a more demanding than expected cost environment. Our results also demonstrate the strength and resilience of our business model and the durable structural advantages we have built over time.

In the third quarter, total capacity measured in ASMs increased 1% year over year. Generally in line with our guidance. We managed capacity carefully, prioritizing profitability. International ASMs grew while domestic ASMs declined 3%. Aligning supply with demand. As Aaron mentioned, revenue reached $1.6 billion, up 14% year over year and a record for any quarter. approximately 12% from passenger revenue and cargo and other commercial revenues.

Total revenue increased by $194 million more than offsetting the $131 million year-over-year increase in fuel prices. This is some revenue performance was driven by the strong consumer demand, strengthened international markets, targeted revenue management initiatives and continued growth in our premium products and loyalty. The result was particularly significant given that fuel costs were approximately $93 million above the level contemplated in the guidance provided last quarter.

During the third quarter of 26, Aeromexico based its loyalty program breakage rate, the first such alignment since 2018. Today, we will reflect current member activity and long term program trends. This update resulted in the recognition of $49 million of revenue, for the period, together with an adjustment to our deferred liability. More importantly, this affected breakage establishes the rate that we expect to drive sustained growth in our annual loyalty revenue moving forward.

Our revenue growth fully offset the year-over-year increase in fuel prices. The combined impact of higher fuel costs anticipated increases in other operating costs and the impact of the stronger Mexican peso continued to pressure profitability. Despite these broader cost pressures, disciplined execution and strong revenue performance, supported an EBIT margin that remains among the strongest in the industry. Total operating expenses increased 22% year-over-year primarily due to a 58% increase in fuel expense.

As fuel prices average nearly $4 per gallon. Compared with $2.50 in the third quarter of 2025. Our efficient fleet helped mitigate this impact with fuel consumption down 2% and fuel burn per ASM declining 3%. Excluding fuel, operating expenses increased 10% primarily reflecting the stronger Mexican peso. Inflationary pressures and costs associated with fleet growth. CASM ex fuel increased 7% year-over-year. A clear improvement over the approximately 15% increase recorded during the first half of the year.

This progress reflects continued growth discipline operating efficiency, and a more stable foreign exchange environment. As we continue to capture operating leverage, opportunities by generating more ASMs with our existing assets, we expect our CASM ex-fuel to turn more favorable. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $389 million, representing a strong 24% margin. While operating income reached $190 million, resulting in a robust 12% operating margin.

Strength of our financial results underscore the structural durability of our business model, our ability to preserve healthy profitability despite a challenging cost environment. In our view, however, the most important financial results of the first 9 months of the year has been our strong cash flow generation. Aeromexico generated about $542 million in net cash from operating activities through 9/30/2026. Enabling us to fund our planned investment while continuing to reduce financial debt.

During the third quarter, we repaid an additional $7 million of debt further strengthening our balance sheet despite elevated fuel prices and other cost pressures. We ended the period with $965 million in cash and cash equivalents, up $31 million year-over-year. We also renewed and upsized our revolving credit facility from $200 million to $250 million bringing total liquidity to $1.2 billion, equivalent to 21% of last 12 months' credit.

This liquidity position provides a strong foundation to continue investing in the business while preserving financial strength. Looking ahead, our updated guidance reflects our latest assumptions for fuel prices, foreign exchange, and inflation related expenses. For the fourth quarter, we expect capacity to increase between 7% and 8% year-over-year. The breaking levers that began to emerge in the third quarter should become more visible in the fourth quarter and continue to do so in the years ahead.

We expect fourth quarter revenue growth of approximately 14% to 16%. This outlook reflects robust demand, the strength of our network and digital and commercial execution. With strong demand, a stronger revenue base, and higher utilization of our existing fleet, we expect to generate more revenue and use our existing assets more efficiently. Supporting the stronger margins over time. More importantly, we expect to achieve this without adding incremental fleet or taking on additional debt to fund growth.

We anticipate fourth quarter CASM ex-fuel to remain flat versus last year over year. For the fourth quarter, we expect an adjusted EBITDA margin between 19.5% and 21.5%. And an operating margin between 7.5% and 9.5%. Taken together, this will take us to a full year 2026 capacity growth of approximately 2% to 3% and year over year revenue growth of approximately 13.5% to 14.5%. We expect full year adjusted EBITDA margin between 21.5% and 22.5% and full year operating margin between 8.5% and 9.5%.

Our guidance assumes an all-in fuel price of approximately $4.05 per gallon, for the fourth quarter and exchange rate of approximately 18 pesos per dollar. We cannot predict when market prices will moderate, but we believe they will again eventually. When that happens, our ability to capture premium revenue, together with our operating leverage and the leverage in the existing platform that we have should be able to unlock additional profitability opportunities.

In the meantime, we remain focused on the strengthening Aeromexico in a challenging environment. Our structural advantages and a strong cash flow generation should continue to reinforce our competitive position, and we believe that the gap between us and our Mexican competitors should continue to widen in the following months. With that, we will now open the call for questions. Thank you.

Questions & answers

Operator · Operator

Thank you. To ask a question, please press 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press 11 again. We ask that you please limit yourselves to 1 question and 1 follow-up. Please standby while we compile our Q and A roster. Our first question is going to come from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

DP

Duane Pfennigwerth

Evercore

Q1

Sir. Good morning. Thank you. Can you just remind us, just play back for us the impacts from changes in FX? Our understanding is a modestly softer peso will lower or help your unit cost, slightly lower your unit revenue but be net neutral or maybe even a slight tailwind to margins? Can you just speak just remind us if we are now, say, modeling 18.0 or 18.5 instead of 17 how that impacts your revenue costs and margins? Thank you.

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

Thank you, Duane. Let me make some comments and then, you know, maybe I will Sánchez Baker to dig deeper. So as you know, we have a natural hedge. On the currency. So, basically, you know, this movement will not affect the P&L. However, they have an impact on demand, like a second order impact where a stronger peso will mean stronger demand for the flying abroad and the other way around. With the pressure of these metals, around, you know, between 18 and 19, we feel that, you know, demand for.

To travel for Mexicans abroad continues to be solid. We are. We are in a good spot. Obviously, when the peso was. it touched, you know, below 17 pesos per dollar. Was even stronger during the summer, but I. And we see at these levels of the currency, very strong demand for Mexicans traveling abroad. So a weaker peso, but we are expecting versus the July guidance. Means lower costs in dollars and lower revenues in dollars.

So even though we kept, you know, the total revenue projections in the guidance flat versus what we were expecting in July, we see there is an impact of this weaker peso, which is equivalent to around 2 percentage points. So that is really, really important. If you look. If you consider that, the expected growth in revenues for the fourth quarter, is between 16% and 18% versus the Q4 of 2025. So it is very, very solid.

And we continue to take additional steps to strengthen revenue. Aaron can We disclose that in more detail. But, again, this. The new level of jet fuel that we are seeing, for example, it is it is relatively new. The past 3 weeks or so, when jet fuel approaching $5 per gallon. it is new. it is a new noise. We are. As Ricardo explained for the quarter, expecting a way higher jet fuel price, which means around a $170 million of pressure, and we are acting So, hopefully, you know, with these actions plus what I adjusted for this peso effect, we can even get closer to a growth rate of around 20% in terms of revenues for the quarter. Again, too soon to say today that we are working on that direction. Ricardo?

RJ

Ricardo Javier Sánchez Baker

Our Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Just to complement what Andrés reported about the revenue side and looking at the cost side, if you look at the anticipated or estimated CASM ex-fuel, for the fourth quarter versus the previous guidance. Obviously, is that CASM ex-fuel can be better in around 2% to 3%, not even also this FX impact. No? So, yeah, we have some impact on the running side, but as Andrés already described. And on the cost side, we see some positive impact on CASM ex-fuel.

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

Thank you. Go ahead. Sorry.

AJ

Aaron James Murray

Chief commercial officer and Ricardo Sánchez Baker, our Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Just a follow-up kind of on fuel recapture initiatives. You know, we have. Obviously, it is been a difficult year in terms of needing to recapture cost of fuel. We have had a lot of success, though. And even in recent weeks, with the rising fuel to find regional success and passing those costs on. So our revenue guidance is in no way an indication that we feel like we have hit the end of that. In fact, with all these initiatives that have been deployed this year, we have not seen any signs that there is any, you know, cracks in demand or that maybe we have gone as far as we can. So I think implicit in our guidance is not too much more recapture for the quarter. But we do feel like as we deploy those initiatives, that could be upside.

DP

Duane Pfennigwerth

Evercore

Q1

Thank you for that detailed response. And then just for my follow-up, can you speak to competitive capacity trends that you are seeing here into the fourth quarter? It does look like the capacity picture gets a bit tighter sequentially Q3 to Q4 domestically in Mexico. I wonder if you could speak to that as well. Thanks for taking the questions.

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

Well, what we are seeing, if you look at the capacity projections for the other 2 carriers in Mexico, they are down. They have been, you know, revised down particularly for 1 of them, which is, you know, for even projecting what would be a contraction for the first quarter. So we are not anticipating pressure on the capacity side on the domestic market. There is an increase in the slots in Mexico City, as Aaron mentioned, from 44 to 46.

We are covering our pro-rata share of that, and we expect other airlines follow. We just cannot see too much activity, but it. it is it is rational to anticipate that those will be covered, and that is what partially explains our growth for the fourth quarter. What I want to stress as Aaron mentioned, that this growth of between, you know, 7%-8%, 70% of that is driven by white body flying. Right? Again, it is the those flights that we started will be after the Q2 of 2025 that year-on-year on there, plus Some additional, you know, narrowbody flying, particularly in the domestic market as we catch up versus the previous sections before.

So it is it is sustainable growth it is a disciplined growth, and it does not consider any additional flying to The US because the DOT order was listed just, you know, at the end of last week. So we are, you know, analyzing our options and we will soon hear positive news on network expansion to The US, but it will not happen this year. It will be you know, if anything, it will be at the start of 2027.

AJ

Aaron James Murray

Chief commercial officer and Ricardo Sánchez Baker, our Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Duane, a few more details on that. First of all, our 7%. 7% to 8% capacity growth, as Andrés mentioned, super efficient growth, almost all driven by stage and gauge versus departure growth. So that is, I think, important context. And then when you look at. Just to give you some specifics on OA capacity growth for the fourth quarter, some modest growth domestically, low single digits 3 points of growth. A little bit more on international, 4 points. But much below our growth in the quarter. So I look at OA industry capacity growth in the fourth quarter to be favorable.

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

Thank you.

Operator · Operator

Thank you. And 1 moment for our next question. Our next question is gonna come from the line of Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

ML

Michael Linenberg

Deutsche Bank

Q2

Oh, hey. Good morning. This is Shannon Doherty on for Mike. Thanks for taking my question. So we saw the headline come through about Volaris and Viva's expected merger approval by the end of this year. We are anticipating to see some remedies. Do you have any thoughts on what they could be and if Aeromexico would benefit from potential remedies?

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

Shannon, I am sorry. We did not hear that very well. Could you please repeat?

ML

Michael Linenberg

Deutsche Bank

Q2

Oh, yeah. Just on, you know, Volaris and Viva's expected merger approval by the end of this year. And, you know, we are anticipating to see some remedies. Do you have any thoughts there? And would Aeromexico potentially benefit from remedies?

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

Thank you for the question. We were waiting for the decision of the authorities. As we mentioned before, our job is to continue strengthening our business. We continue to invest in our airline to continue differentiating ourselves, our model from the 2 ULCCs. So that is our job, and I think again, as we mentioned during our remarks, it seems, you know, it is it is. We have a very positive trend. We are very happy where the business is going.

And so we have been obviously in contact with the authorities you know, sharing our views. And, you know, we cannot comment if it is going to be approved or not. But, you know, certainly, know, in the past, many occasions in other parts of the world when these type of mergers like these happen, they are usually you know, come with remedies. Which remedies if it is approved? We do not know yet. And, you know, we will let you know if we will, you know, show and explain our position. But, again, I think we are in a good spot with where we are today and going forward.

ML

Michael Linenberg

Deutsche Bank

Q2

Thanks. And if I may follow-up, you know, with the increase in slots from 44 to 46 per hour, do you think that this number increases further? I know that, you know, pre-pandemic the airport was running in the low 60s. So I am just wondering if there are any conversations about raising the slot limit further given the DOT's revocation? Which would support further service to The US? Thanks for taking my questions.

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

Yes. Again, this increase from 44 to 46. Yesterday, I was asked the same question. As you know, we are in the ALTA Forum this week. it is in Mexico City. He participated and, you know, he was asked that question. And he did mention that, you know, going forward, you know, by the end of this decade, we can expect to see a larger number of operations in Mexico City going to the high forties. That was. And this is, you know, in line with what, you know, we are projecting. Thank you.

Operator · Operator

Thank you. And our next question is going to come from Guilherme Mendez with JPMorgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

GM

Guilherme Mendes

Analyst

Q3

Yes. Good morning all. Hi, Andrés. Ricardo, Aaron and Lucero. Thanks for taking my question. I have a follow-up on the fuel recapture and demand trends. I guess the initial remarks on the strong demand environment is. Was very clear, but just wanted to better understand the breakdown between, leisure, corporate, domestic, international, which segments are you seeing an outperformance and which segments are you seeing an underperformance? Thank you.

AJ

Aaron James Murray

Chief commercial officer and Ricardo Sánchez Baker, our Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. I can take that. In terms of the performance and where we are where we are seeing strength and as we look out into the fourth quarter. We are we are we are super optimistic on the wide body fleet. Europe and Asia, in particular, because that is where all our growth is coming. So with the capacity expansion, we are going to daily in Incheon later in the winter Iota period, and then we are up, you know, 25% or so in Europe in the fourth quarter.

And given that capacity growth, we are really happy with the increases in fares and traction we are seeing Demand, we are we are booked ahead in terms of load factor and really across the board in all geographies. We sit here for the quarter up about 2 to 3 points in both load factor with that kind of capacity increase. So I think, you know, strength generally across the board more international than we are domestic.

I think that follows, you know, in addition to just performance overall where we are seeing fuel, recapture. Maybe highlighting another entity would be The US You may recall, fourth quarter US was quite strong in the comp. And even on top of that, we are seeing know, strong fuel recapture that is been sticky and demand that really has not slowed down. Again, why do I echo Andrés', you know, excitement about the DOT rescinding the order enough being able to grow into the U.S. in the future.

So you know, those would be the geographies where we are seeing strength. No real weaknesses. I mean, domestic a little different and the competitive set's a little different. So your process for getting fuel recapture is not the same. But generally speaking, across the board, we are pretty optimistic with. Within all geographies.

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

Let me. I will just complement what Aaron mentioned. Generic, if you look at the, you know, the 13 numbers, you know, revenue Road, offset the fuel pressure. So we were able to recapture more than 100% of the fuel pressure. Again, not enough to consider the growth in other know, costs associated to inflation in Mexico, like labor costs. But it was a very strong performance. For the 14 in the guidance that we gave, fewer captures today at, you know, 90%, low 90s, 92%, 93%.

We believe that we described that we are not included that may result better revenue numbers. We will be confident that we can get close to a 100% offset of the fee. And I think you know, many airlines in the industry can have these type of results.

GM

Guilherme Mendes

Analyst

Q3

Very clear. Thank you, guys. If I may follow-up, on breaking down between corporate and leisure, Corporate continues to be relatively stronger.

AJ

Aaron James Murray

Chief commercial officer and Ricardo Sánchez Baker, our Chief Financial Officer

Yep. We are seeing strength across both those segments. We just did a corporate survey, little poll survey, and the vast majority of corporates are looking at fourth quarter demand at stable or slightly up. You know, corporate. Where we did see some corporate was during the World Cup. There was definitely. And this was not surprising. But as, you know, hotel and fare prices were high during the cup, in addition to just people's excitement around the cup, We did see corporate not grow at the same pace as the leisure business.

But that is really. As we have transitioned and distanced ourselves from the cup, both corporate and your high end leisure are behaving at a similar clip year over year. So both real strong demand.

GM

Guilherme Mendes

Analyst

Q3

that is clear. Thank you.

Operator · Operator

Thank you. And our next question is going to come from the line of Jens Spiess with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

JS

Jens Spiess

Morgan Stanley

Q4

Hello. Thank you. So yes, my first question is on the fourth quarter guide. Specifically how it changed versus your previous fourth-quarter guide. Right? If you. If we look at it, obviously the biggest variable to change is the fuel price assumption. At the end of the day, your revenue guidance also slightly declined despite the higher fuel. I mean, some of it might be due to FX. Right? But I was wondering, are you did not-- have not you raised fares versus what you were expecting within your previous guidance to offset that higher fuel assumption.

And also trying to understand how this will impact, like, the next year. Right? I mean, Andrés, you already mentioned some metrics on fuel recapture, but assuming that fuel remains at this elevated level, say, you know, 4.3, 4.5, whatever, but, should we expect more pronounced fair increases in revenue growth in the first quarter of next year?

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

Yes. Thank you, Jens, for your When we did the guidance, in July and we shared that, we were expecting despite in other words, piece announcement, jet fuel went down. We were expecting this to stick well, at least for the. Till the end of the year, and that was reflected in the guidance. You know, all the rumors of a ceasefire did not stick. You know, jet prices. Crack spreads went up. But this, you know, the business right now we are paying, as you know, historically high jet fuel prices.

We have never paid this jet fuel in history. You know, all the airlines. Right? Even though crude oil is at, you know, $90 and, you know, it touched $180 back, you know, 15 years ago, But jet fuel, you know, only for a couple of days when the conflict in Ukraine started. It did not. It was at these levels. But what we are seeing today sustained is the first time in history. We are adjusting. We have many initiatives in place every day you know, we are taking these initiatives.

Again, this is new, the last 3 weeks. it is not reflected these initiatives in our guidance. Hopefully, you know, they will stick. We see you know, very strong demand. Today, you know, we are not in a position to review these guidance because, again, they are very new. We need to wait a little bit more time. But we are working on it. And, again, let me stress once again that the stronger dollar versus the peso, you know, reflected in 2% lower growth in revenue for the fourth quarter.

So if you adjust for that, if you go back to the July exchange rate, growth, you know, for the Q4 would be between 16% and 18% versus the Q4 of 2025. So know, adjusting for the peso and, again, in this initiatives that we are taking, you know, we could be, you know, close to the 20% year-on-year growth. For the fourth quarter, which would be outstanding and would put us again in a leading position in the industry. And that is where we want to be, and we are we are working on that direction.

AJ

Aaron James Murray

Chief commercial officer and Ricardo Sánchez Baker, our Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. I would just add to Andrés' comments. And as I mentioned before, I would not dismiss the headwind that FX has on revenue. But implicit, I think, in our in our guidance, again, in the expectations is not that we are going to have significant movements on the fare recapture side. So it is conservative from that regard. With that being said, we are seeing no signs of demand cracking. Right? And we are going to go back, like we do every week and look for opportunities to pass you know, the cost of fuel on to consumers.

And we are pretty optimistic that at this point through the year we have had to not have any signs of weakness in demand, I think that bodes well for us to continue to push on fuel recapture.

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

The additional fuel impact versus the July guidance then it is $170 million. it is around 11 margin points. So if you adjust for that, you know, the guidance that we gave, EBIT margins are close to 20%. Again, we were already trying to pass the prices. We charge the ones that we were expecting in July, not the same level that we were seeing in 2025. So that is that is where you can say how strong structurally the company is.

JS

Jens Spiess

Morgan Stanley

Q4

Alright. Perfect. And 1 additional question. On the DOT ruling and the lifting of the restriction in Mexico City. I mean, you already mentioned that you plan to deploy additional capacity to the U.S. mainly next year. But given the current FAA review, and the potential, like, I mean, downgrade to Category 2, is not there, like, a window of opportunity to anticipate those capacity deployments? just to raise your capacity ahead of any potential downgrade.

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

On the FAA review, as you know, the Mexican government provided a statement last week where you know, they claimed that the audit went well. Obviously, there are. I see in any audit, some observations. You know, much, you know, lower number of observations versus the last FAA audit that was done a few days ago. I mean, we are very close to the authorities. We hear that they will be able to remedy those observations.

Again, in the ALTA Forum that was held yesterday, our secretary of transportation She stressed because, you know, 1 of the concerns that, you know, the FAA have was the budget for the civil aviation authority in Mexico. So he mentioned that the budget considered for 2022 an increase of close to 60% in the resources to the AFAC, which is a civil aviation authority. The FAA administrator was there. And, you know, they got together.

They mentioned they have productive meetings yesterday. She was in the in the ALTA Forum as well. So With this 60%, that will strengthen the capacity of the civil aviation authority to regulate the industry. They plan to hire, she mentioned, around 500 more people, with 100 in 2020. So things are looking fine on that front. Again, it does not depend on us. it is it is an issue between the 2 governments. But we have that in mind. Things look well. And in our decisions to expand the network to The U.S., we will, you know, consider that risk. I.

AJ

Aaron James Murray

Chief commercial officer and Ricardo Sánchez Baker, our Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. I will just add too. The--the window that you discussed in the back-and-forth, there was a I guess, a follow-up happening in February. So we are definitely. As we think about deploying capacity and expanding to new markets, in The US, we have that window in mind.

JS

Jens Spiess

Morgan Stanley

Q4

Perfect. All right. Thank you.

Operator · Operator

Thank you. And our next question is gonna come from the line of Ernesto Anton Morten Cotter with GBM. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

A

Analyst

Analyst

Q5

Hi, guys. Thank you for taking my question. Just a quick 1. I was wondering if anything related with the recent events in Europe and specifically in France have caused any maybe change in the demand for some regions or affecting some of your long haul travel? Thank you.

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

I am sorry, guys. We did not hear you very well. Could you please repeat? Maybe get a little away from the from the phone.

A

Analyst

Analyst

Q5

Hi. Yes. I was asking if anything related to the events that recently happened in France and Europe has maybe impacted negatively any of the demand that you are seeing in your long-haul? Thank you.

AJ

Aaron James Murray

Chief commercial officer and Ricardo Sánchez Baker, our Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. We have not seen any impact due to that. Obviously, watching closely as those events unfold. But so far, no impact on the net.

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

Yeah. We started Paris, as you know, the new flight between Monterrey and Paris. And it is been the performance has been very solid since the start. So we, you know, we were keeping it going forward, and we are launching, as I mentioned before, Guadalajara-Paris. So like, Madrid, where we expanded, you know, from Guadalajara in February, Paris is, you know, the next point in Europe where we will deploy that strategy. And it is looking fine. The clients have not affected, you know, most factors.

A

Analyst

Analyst

Q5

Super. Thank you.

RJ

Ricardo Javier Sánchez Baker

Our Chief Financial Officer

Hi. This is Ricardo. We have a couple of questions from the webcast, but we would like to respond. The first question is related to implications of our guidance for the fourth quarter in terms of our cash flow performance. As we described in our remarks, we are convinced that 1 of the familiar service center we have had financially this year has been our ability to maintain strong cash flow generation in the first 9 months of the year, we have been able to generate strong cash flow, net cash flow from operating activities of around $540 million which is only around $25 million below net cash from operating activities that we generated in the first 9 months of last year.

So we. This has been really a remarkable achievement. And we expect that this trend will continue for the for the fourth quarter. So overall, for the full year, what we expect is that cash flow generation will be strong. We will be able to continue implementing our CapEx plan. It is very important to highlight that we are not delaying our CapEx plan. We continue to implement it. We will continue to bring down financial debt And then what we expect is that our cash balances will remain stable.

So this will give us a lot of flexibility going forward. right? So a. in order to take advantage of it once conditions improve. And for the second question that we have in the webcast is related to our CASM ex-fuel trend, you know, and our expectation will be. As we discussed in our remarks the CASM ex-fuel trends have been positive, and we expect them to continue to be positive. In the first half of the year, CASM ex-fuel grew around 15%, part of it reflecting the negative impact from the strong peso.

No? In the third quarter, we reported an increase in CASM-ex fuel of around 7%. When you look at the implicit guidance that we provided after this year in the fourth quarter, it is expected actually to contract. Versus last year. So this is partially reflecting a more stable foreign exchange, but it is reflecting the operating leverage that we have also highlighted in previous calls, the fact that we already have this capacity, the aircraft, you know, in our fleet, And now we are.

We will be using these assets more intensively, more efficiently, producing revenue. And as we are able to do that, we should have improvement in our margins. No? producing revenue with fewer assets on the 1 hand, and on the other side, producing ASMs with the capacity that we currently have and reducing our CASM ex-fuel. So we expect this trend to continue to improve in the following works.

AC

Andrés Conesa Labastida

Speaker

Thank you again for time for being able to join the call. We. Again, we continue to work to strengthen revenue, to contain costs, and to continue providing these outstanding levels of profitability. We will continue to be bolstered and we will continue, to be relevant in any issue that we face. And we look forward to a very solid fourth quarter, and then what we see as a challenging year. Thank you very much again. And any follow-up questions, please let us know. Thank you.

Operator · Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

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